Modelling travellers' heterogeneous route choice behaviour as prospect maximizers

Ramos, Giselle de Moraes; Daamen, Winnie; Hoogendoorn, Serge P.

doi:10.1016/j.jocm.2013.04.002

Cited by 30 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Travelers' preference heterogeneity is a topic of interest in the transportation community. Many studies in transportation (e.g., [33][34][35]) have confrmed its existence. In order to capture such a property, a latent class model framework was adopted in this study.…”

Section: Latent Class Mixed Logit Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impacts of Stay-in-Place Policy of COVID-19 Pandemic during the Chinese Spring Festival: A Stated Preference Approach

Pan

Feng

Chen

2023

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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This paper aims to investigate Chinese people’s willingness to stay in the city where they work when the Spring Festival meets the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, a stated choice experiment about intercity travel including three homecoming trips (i.e., trips carried by conventional railway, high-speed railways, and private car) and the option “stay in place” was designed. Respondents were requested to choose the most preferred alternative in the context of the current situation of the COVID-19 pandemic and relevant policies. Based on the data collected from 800 respondents, a latent class mixed logit model was developed and estimated to capture the potential correlations within alternatives and respondents and the preference heterogeneity between respondents. Two latent classes were identified, one of which paid more attention to epidemic prevention policies while the other cared more about the characteristics of homecoming trips. Results show that people’s willingness to stay in the city of work is largely dependent on epidemic prevention policies in their hometowns and decisions of social network members.

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Section: Latent Class Mixed Logit Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impacts of Stay-in-Place Policy of COVID-19 Pandemic during the Chinese Spring Festival: A Stated Preference Approach

Pan

Feng

Chen

2023

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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“…Nonetheless, it has been found that maximum utility theory cannot reproduce human behaviour in certain circumstances. Thus, alternative theories have been developed, such as bounded rationality [ 50 , 51 ] and prospect theory [ 52 – 54 ], that try to account for cognitive biases in the decision-making process. Even though these theories provide insights on different aspects of human choice behaviour, none can be considered ‘true’, and all have some limitations.…”

Section: Modelling Car-based Mobility As a Collective Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

A paradox of traffic and extra cars in a city as a collective behaviour

et al. 2021

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Promoting walking or cycling and reducing cars’ use is one of the city planners’ main targets, contributing to a sustainable transport method. Yet, the number of vehicles worldwide is increasing as fast as the population, and motorized mobility has become the primary transport method in most cities. Here, we consider modal share as an emergent behaviour of personal decisions. All individuals minimize their commuting time and reach an equilibrium under which no person is willing to change their transportation mode. In terms of the minimum travel time, the best-case scenario is used to determine the extra commuting time and the excess cars, computed as a social inefficiency. Results show that commuting times could increase up to 25% with many more vehicles than optimum. Paradoxically, all individuals trying to minimize their time could collectively reach the maximum commuting times in the extreme case, with all individuals driving during rush hour.

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“…CPT frames the perceived outcomes as gains and losses by a reference point and uses the value function and the weighting function to jointly describe people's choice behaviour under risk and uncertainty. It has been applied to successfully model various travel-related behaviours (e.g., [27]), and some studies indicated that CPT exhibits better performance than EUT in capturing behaviour characteristics (bounded rationality and risk attitudes) of decision-making under risk and uncertainty (e.g., [28], [29]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Pedestrian Tactical and Operational Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty: A Two-Layer Model Framework

Huang

Zhao

Yuan

et al. 2023

IEEE Trans. Intell. Transport. Syst.

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Pedestrian tactical choices and operational movement in evacuations essentially pertain to decision-making under risk and uncertainty. However, in microscopic evacuation models, this attribute has been greatly overlooked, even lacking a methodology to delineate the related decision characteristics (bounded rationality and risk attitudes), let alone their effects on evacuation processes. This work presents an innovative two-layer floor field cellular automaton model framework, where three intertwined sub-modules respectively dedicated to modelling the exit choice, the locomotion movement and the exit-choice changing behaviours are proposed and integrated as an entity. By introducing various decision-making elements computed by the proposed algorithm, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is proposed for the first time to model the exit choice and locomotion decision-making under risk and uncertainty. In the exit-choice changing module, attractive and repulsive forces are invented to jointly describe the tendency to revisit the routing decision. Each sub-module and the whole framework are validated in manifold indoor environments. The simulation results of the modules with CPT accord with the empirics from the evacuation experiments and are superior over those from the state-of-theart models. The degree of rationality and risk attitudes are proven to have significant impacts on tactical and operational decisions. Furthermore, irrational behaviour in decision-making is not variably detrimental to locomotion efficiency of pedestrians. The proposed framework can serve as an elegant tool to predict pedestrian dynamics. The behavioural findings shed new light on understanding and modelling the tactical and operational decisions in evacuations.

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Modelling travellers' heterogeneous route choice behaviour as prospect maximizers

Cited by 30 publications

References 26 publications

Assessing the Impacts of Stay-in-Place Policy of COVID-19 Pandemic during the Chinese Spring Festival: A Stated Preference Approach

Assessing the Impacts of Stay-in-Place Policy of COVID-19 Pandemic during the Chinese Spring Festival: A Stated Preference Approach

A paradox of traffic and extra cars in a city as a collective behaviour

Modeling Pedestrian Tactical and Operational Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty: A Two-Layer Model Framework

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