Multi-parameters uncertainty analysis of logistic support process based on GERT

Abstract

The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However, the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique (MTP-GERT) is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.

Analysis of the Transmission of Project Duration and Cost Impacts Based on the GERT Network Technique

“…The formulas (22), (23), (31), (32), (33), and (34) are introduced into the formulas (4)- (10), thus obtaining the duration gain-loss and cost loss transmission from project identification (node 1) to project transmission (node 5). Based on the formulas (25), (26), (28), (29), and (30), the probability, expected value, and variance of duration gain-loss and cost loss transmission are respectively obtained.…”

“…The transfer function W G 15 (s 1 , s 2 ) from node 1 to node 5 can be obtained from the formulas (22), (23), and (24). The equivalent probability P 15 (s 1 , s 2 ) from node 1 to node 5 can be obtained from the formulas (26)-(30) and is 0.8560, while the expected value E(t) and the variance V(t) of duration gain-loss transmission are 78.23 and 62.57, respectively.…”

Risk Scenario Generation Based on Importance Measure Analysis

“…Similarly, as an essential part of the whole system, activities of different importance have different influence on the whole project's system risk. Meanwhile, for maintenance and logistic systems in the reliability and risk assessment field, the schedule and cost also need to be taken into account when assessing the importance of activities in the system [39,40]. From this perspective, importance measurement of activities and importance evaluation of parts in the reliability field are as important when analyzing system risk.…”

“…This article is mainly about identifying risk events from a system's critical activities and combining the important events to generate risk scenarios by computing the importance measure of risk events. With reference to the UMI index in the field of reliability and risk assessment [29,39], we proposed a set of important measurement indexes to identify and generate risk scenarios. Meanwhile, three critical activities analysis methods, Taguchi tolerance design, mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation methods, are applied to GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) networks, used to model activity-based systems such as engineering project systems or maintenance and logistic systems [40], to determine activities' uncertain importance measure by focusing on mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.…”

Recent advances on graphical evaluation and review techniques

“…In GERT, all branches are explained in terms of the probability that the branch is traversed and the tile to traverse the branch in case it is taken (FriLòker, 1966;Li et al, 2012;Wu et al, 2014;Hu et al, 2010). Sridharan and Kalyani (2002), for instance, presented a stochastic analysis of a non-identical two-unit parallel system with common-cause failure based on the GERT technique.…”