Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). Part I: Sensitivity study

Shi, Xueli; Liu, Yiming; Liu, Yan; Li, Qingquan; Yongfu, Qian; Miao, Ming-Ming; Zhai, Gangyi; Gao, Kun

doi:10.1007/s00376-006-0323-8

Cited by 36 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Recall that the top-layer soil moisture of our study area in the Merged run mostly exceeds 30% (Figure 5), where the dominant field capacity is about 40%, indicating that the soil moisture availability fields of wet ensembles (as WP10 and WP15) are mostly saturated with intense moisture stress, which could account for the larger differences of both the latent heat fluxes (LH) (Figure 10a) and sensible heat fluxes (HFX) (Figure 10b) in the DP ensembles compared to the CTL versus the WP. Thus, due to the very wet initial soil conditions, the near-surface thermodynamic variables are more sensitive to the dry surface, and these results are consistent with the previous results in climatic scales [43,46]. wet ensembles (as WP10 and WP15) are mostly saturated with intense moisture stress, which could account for the larger differences of both the latent heat fluxes (LH) (Figure 10a) and sensible heat fluxes (HFX) (Figure 10b) in the DP ensembles compared to the CTL versus the WP.…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Near-surface and Upper Pbl Characteristics Tosupporting

confidence: 82%

“…wet ensembles (as WP10 and WP15) are mostly saturated with intense moisture stress, which could account for the larger differences of both the latent heat fluxes (LH) (Figure 10a) and sensible heat fluxes (HFX) (Figure 10b) in the DP ensembles compared to the CTL versus the WP. Thus, due to the very wet initial soil conditions, the near-surface thermodynamic variables are more sensitive to the dry surface, and these results are consistent with the previous results in climatic scales [43,46]. The convective available energy (CAPE) for the most unstable 500-m-deep air parcel and the PBL height (PBLH) are also examined.…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Near-surface and Upper Pbl Characteristics Tosupporting

confidence: 77%

“…Results show that both the perturbed potential temperature over dry surfaces and the moisture over wet surfaces are managed by the atmosphere conditions (Figure 12), and the former is also modulated by surface heat exchange and the latter is also modulated by surface moisture exchange because HFX is larger over dry surfaces than wet while LH is smaller (Figure 11), and sensitivities between PBL and soil moisture are stronger over dry surfaces than wet surfaces due to the very wet initial surface [49]. These relations between soil moisture and near-surface thermodynamic conditions have been verified by many previous large-scale works [43,47,48]. However, different from these works, results also show a significant negative relationship between precipitation and the varying temperature of PBL over dry surfaces, as well as a positive relationship between precipitation and moisture over wet ( Figure 16); decreased precipitation at the late stage of this rainstorm over both wet and dry surfaces is attributed to the impact of the atmospheric forcing on the temperature and moisture of the whole PBL through the MCSs.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

“…Our choices of domain size and grid spacing reflect a compromise that allows us to assess effects of surface conditions on the PBL and isolated MCSs over a relatively small region. Each domain has 50 vertical levels, among which 21 layers under a 5-km model height are selected to study the boundary layer characteristics; the bottom model layer is about at [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45] observed rainstorm. The current study applies a different approach to analyzing the sensitivity of the PBL and precipitation to land surface conditions, which can help us understand the local land surface effects on typical frontal convection development.…”

Section: Model and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Impacts of Soil Moisture on Typical Frontal Rainstorm in Yangtze River Basin

2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

By using a coupled land surface-atmosphere model with initial conditions of varying resolution and ensembles of systematically changed soil moisture, convective-scale simulations of a typical frontal rainstorm in the Yangtze River Basin are collected to investigate: (1) effects of different datasets on the simulated frontal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs); (2) possible linkages between soil moisture, planetary boundary layer (PBL), MCSs and precipitation in this modeled rainstorm. Firstly, initial soil moisture differences can affect the PBL, MCSs and precipitation of this frontal rainstorm. Specially, for a 90 mm precipitation forecast, the Threat score (TS) can increase 6.61% by using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) soil moisture. Secondly, sensitivity experiment results show that the near-surface thermodynamic conditions are more sensitive to dry soil than wet due to the initial moist surface; atmosphere conditions have suppressed the relations between soil and atmosphere; and decreased precipitation can be found over both wet and dry surfaces. Generally, a positive feedback between soil moisture and the near-surface thermodynamic conditions is identified, while the relations between soil moisture and precipitation are quite complicated. This relationship shows a daytime mixing of warm surface soil over dry surfaces and a daytime evaporation of adequate moisture over wet surfaces. The large-scale forcing can affect these relations and finally cause decreased precipitation over both wet and dry surfaces.

show abstract

Section: Sensitivity Of Near-surface and Upper Pbl Characteristics Tosupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Sensitivity Of Near-surface and Upper Pbl Characteristics Tosupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Section: Model and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impacts of Soil Moisture on Typical Frontal Rainstorm in Yangtze River Basin

2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Such model discrepancy could certainly affect the simulated features of seasonal and inter-annual variations of the monsoon precipitation featured by significant meridional oscillations. For example, Ding et al (2006) found the second northward jump of rain-belt in the RegCM2 (modified version by the National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration) was earlier than observed, resulting in a longer (shorter) rainy season over northern China (the YRB region). The atmosphere and land/ocean properties will also be influenced (Leung et al 1999;Qian and Leung 2007;Zou and Zhou 2011;Yang et al 2012;Fang et al 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Reasonably modeling the magnitude, southnorth gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved. The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. By using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.

show abstract

Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, using the regional climate model COSMO‐CLM

Fischer

Menz

et al. 2013

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study presents a detailed analysis of simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin (ZRB). Daily output from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM), driven by the ECHAM5 general circulation model, is used. The hindcast simulation covers the period from 1961 to 2000 while the projection concentrates on the near future period from 2011 to 2050. Spatio-temporal statistical characteristics are investigated for three temperature and three precipitation indicators. The six simulated annual and monthly indicators are statistically compared with synoptic observations. The analysis is based on daily values of 195 grid points and 192 meteorological stations. The findings are presented and interpreted in terms of the model's capability. Compared to observations, slightly higher values for temperature indicators and slightly lower values for precipitation indicators are simulated. With the resulting good similarities in the spatial variation and trends, we conclude that CCLM is able to satisfyingly reproduce climate extreme for the simulated period. Therefore, our analyses show that CCLM can be used to project climate extremes in the ZRB for the period from 2011 to 2050. The projected changes indicate warmer and wetter conditions in the northern and southern regions, especially in winter and spring. This includes more intense rainfall events, which might potentially increase the risk of flooding in the central parts of the basin in these seasons. Warmer and dryer conditions can be expected in the western and eastern parts of the region, especially in summer and fall. These lower precipitation amounts but warmer temperatures will probably increase the evapotranspiration, which potentially leads to a higher risk of drought. Regarding these findings in climate extremes, adverse consequences in various sectors, such as agriculture, water, and energy should be anticipated.

show abstract

Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). Part I: Sensitivity study

Cited by 36 publications

References 36 publications

Impacts of Soil Moisture on Typical Frontal Rainstorm in Yangtze River Basin

Impacts of Soil Moisture on Typical Frontal Rainstorm in Yangtze River Basin

Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, using the regional climate model COSMO‐CLM

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About