“…What are the yield and area growth rates required to achieve rice self-sufficiency in SSA by the target date of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2030? Although the impact of technologies is frequently discussed in the literature ( Arouna et al, 2017 , Jiao and Schneeberger, 2017 , Kassie et al, 2011 , Saito et al, 2019 ), the impact assessment of policy measures is limited, and to the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to estimate the impact of the CARD framework. In addition, while extensive literature exists on the separate application of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model ( Ruby-Figueroa et al, 2017 , Sen et al, 2016 ) and counterfactual approach ( Arouna et al, 2017 , Manda et al, 2019 ), the combination of the two methods to assess the impact of policy is uncommon.…”