Jakarta, as a metropolitan city, has a complexity of urban problems, one of which is the shape of the city, which is spread out and results in people’s dependence on motorized vehicles. Transit-oriented development (TOD) areas are one alternative to solving these problems by increasing density and accessibility between destinations and integrating modes of public transportation. This article aims to predict the occupancy density that has not been optimized by vertical development to optimize the use of space in the Dukuh Atas TOD area through spatial analysis. This study uses quantitative analysis through the Geographic Information System (GIS) method by analyzing land suitability through overlay techniques, calculating environmental carrying capacity in residential areas, analyzing building density index using the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) method, and extracting dense areas by superimposing on Floor Area Ratio (FAR) data. Based on the results of the conformity analysis, it was found that there were areas that were not suitable for approximately 16.33% of the total area of the Dukuh Atas TOD area, especially in the western part. The calculation of environmental carrying capacity results shows that the TOD area of Dukuh Atas can still accommodate 2.05 times the current population. To re-optimize it, an allocation of residential density area is generated following the FAR in Jakarta’s Detailed Spatial Plan so that the maximum number of floors can be achieved. The results of these calculations can produce predictions of residential needs that are more detailed and consistent with the conditions of the TOD area in Dukuh Atas.