Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios

Coupe, Joshua; Stevenson, Samantha; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Rohr, Tyler; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Robock, Alan; Olivarez, Holly; Bardeen, Charles G.; Toon, O. B.

doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00088-1

Cited by 20 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…The tropical Paci c plays a critical role in modulating the climate system response to external forcing. Similar cases are found in the Nuclear Niño 33 or the northern Eurasia winter warming responses to stratospheric soot and sulfate aerosols injections during volcanic scenarios 47 . Moreover, current paleoclimate reconstructions exhibit divergent ENSO responses to volcanic eruptions 21,27,48 .…”

Section: Mainsupporting

confidence: 73%

“…Previous studies of the effects of volcanic eruptions on EASM commonly overlook the role of El Niño, although it has been suggested by a number of proxy-reconstructed El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices that the likelihood of an El Niño increases after eruptions [21][22][23][24][25][26][27] . Several mechanisms have been proposed using state-of-the-art model simulations to explain this connection: the ocean dynamic thermostat [28][29][30] , land-sea thermal contrast [31][32][33] , and equatorward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone [34][35][36] . This work investigates the response of the EASM-tropical Paci c system to tropical volcanism to understand the interaction and relative roles of internal climate feedback and external forcing.…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium

Liu¹,

Gao²,

Chai³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Extreme East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall frequently induces floods that pose threats to millions of people across East Asia. The intensified EASM rainfall has been generally attributed to internal modes of climate variability, while external volcanic forcing has been suggested to suppress the EASM. In contrast to the hydrological weakening theory of volcanic eruptions, we present convergent empirical and modeling evidence for significant intensification of EASM rainfall in response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Our paleoclimate proxy analyses show a significantly increased EASM in the first summer after large tropical eruptions from 1470 AD to the present. The multi-proxy ensemble mean demonstrates that the occurrence of an El Niño in the first boreal winter after a volcanic eruption is necessary for the enhanced EASM. The results from the last-millennium climate model simulations show that a volcano-induced El Niño and the associated warm pool air-sea interaction intensify EASM precipitation, overwhelming volcanic-induced moisture deficiency. This work offers a new perspective on the intertwined relationship between external forcing and internal variability in the complex climate system and potential flood disasters resulting from tropical volcanic eruption.

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Section: Mainsupporting

confidence: 73%

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium

Liu¹,

Gao²,

Chai³

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Here, we use model simulations of both volcanic eruptions and nuclear war to explore the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on atmospheric circulation. Other aspects of climate change in these nuclear war simulations have been previously reported (Coupe et al, 2019(Coupe et al, , 2021Toon et al, 2019). We use the Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM), containing coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land components.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Stratospheric Soot and Sulfate Aerosols on the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation

Coupe

Robock

2021

JGR Atmospheres

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The Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation response to volcanic eruptions has been explored extensively using general circulation models. In observations and some models, the response is characterized by an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), a positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and warm surface temperatures during the winter over North America and Eurasia. A weak surface air temperature signal in previous studies has led to conflicting conclusions on the robustness of the response. Here, we use simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) of six nuclear war scenarios to present a new perspective on the connection between stratospheric aerosol heating, the SPV, and the surface temperature response. We show that stratospheric aerosol heating by soot is the primary contributor to the SPV response in nuclear war simulations, which is coupled to the troposphere and projects as a positive mode of the NAO at the surface. Winter warming is observed across northern Eurasia, albeit poleward of the response after volcanic eruptions. We compare the results to simulations of volcanic eruptions and find that observed Eurasian warming in the first winter after the 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruptions is simulated with the NCAR CAM5 climate model only when tropical sea surface temperatures, including the observed El Niño, are specified along with the volcanic aerosols. This suggests an undiagnosed tropospheric mechanism connecting the tropics and high latitudes, as without specifying sea surface temperatures, internal variability dominates the simulated winter warming response after historical volcanic eruptions.

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“…Models suggest that the climactic effect of particle emissions is larger during this period; additionally, food stocks are at their near lowest in the global North, as the Northern hemisphere harvest season has not yet started, and could potentially fail [38]. The results found using this model are also, to some extent, applicable to the volcanic winter scenario [22,37,39], even though the soot aerosols from nuclear fires result in more extreme climate effects.…”

Section: Catastrophic Scenario Characterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nutrition in Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios: Envisioning Feasible Balanced Diets on Resilient Foods

Pham¹,

Martínez²,

Brynych³

et al. 2022

Nutrients

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Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) following catastrophic events, such as a nuclear war, a large volcanic eruption or an asteroid strike, could prompt global agricultural collapse. There are low-cost foods that could be made available in an ASRS: resilient foods. Nutritionally adequate combinations of these resilient foods are investigated for different stages of a scenario with an effective response, based on existing technology. While macro- and micronutrient requirements were overall met, some—potentially chronic—deficiencies were identified (e.g., vitamins D, E and K). Resilient sources of micronutrients for mitigating these and other potential deficiencies are presented. The results of this analysis suggest that no life-threatening micronutrient deficiencies or excesses would necessarily be present given preparation to deploy resilient foods and an effective response. Careful preparedness and planning—such as stock management and resilient food production ramp-up—is indispensable for an effective response that not only allows for fulfilling people’s energy requirements, but also prevents severe malnutrition.

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Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios

Cited by 20 publications

References 60 publications

Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium

Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium

The Influence of Stratospheric Soot and Sulfate Aerosols on the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation

Nutrition in Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios: Envisioning Feasible Balanced Diets on Resilient Foods

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