Numerical storm surge model for India and Pakistan

Abstract

The northeastern sector of the Arabian Sea, which covers the Gujarat coast of India and western coast of Pakistan, is a region vulnerable to extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea is not high, the coastal regions of India and Pakistan suffer in terms of loss of life and property caused by the surges. In view of this a location-specific fine resolution model is developed for the Gujarat coast of India and adjoining Pakistan coast. The east-west and north-south grid distance is about 3.0 km. Using this model, numerical experiments are carried out to simulate the surges generated by 1999 and 2001 cyclones which struck the Pakistan coast. The model computed surges are in agreement with the available observational estimates.

Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

“…It is therefore felt that, besides large-scale storm surge prediction models; operational centers should use high-resolution location-specific models for accurate prediction of the surges. Keeping this in view, the above authors Rao et al (1997), Chittibabu (1999), Chittibabu et al (2000Chittibabu et al ( , 2002, Dube et al (2000bDube et al ( , c, 2004, and Jain et al (2006aJain et al ( , 2006b have developed locationspecific high-resolution models for Andhra, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat coasts of India, and for Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman, on the lines similar to that of Dube et al (1994). One of the important features of the model is that it uses more accurate and detailed bathymetry for the offshore waters.…”

“…9. It may be seen that a maximum surge of 3.8 m is predicted near the Bhitiaro creek, and the surges at Wari creek and southern Kori creek are 3.4 m and 2 m, respectively (Jain et al 2006b). The surge of about 0.5 m can be seen near the southern part of Karachi.…”

“…It is found that the maximum computed surge height of 3.8 m is comparable with the highest value in the range of surge estimates provided by Unisys (1999). (Jain et al 2006b) 2.6 m and 2.5 m are simulated at Sur and Nazwa Fins, respectively. The peak surge value at Muscat is around 2 m. Also, it is seen that a coastal stretch of about 100 km to the northeastern Oman is flooded with surges of about 1 m. The computed maximum surge value of 2.6 m is comparable with the estimated range of surge heights provided the by Unisys Weather Information Services (2007).…”

A Transformed Coordinate Model to Predict Tide and Surge Along the Head Bay of Bengal- Application to Cyclone of 1991 and 1970

“…However, some observed data were collected form BIWTA and used by Roy [12] for the storms of December 1981, May 1985 with maximum sustained anti-clock wise circulatory wind velocities of 36 m/s and 42 m/s respectively. The time histories of these storms are given in Table.1.…”

“…The effect of presence of river on the surge development is discussed in [23] using boundary fitted stair step models. The expected total water levels for the coast of India, Pakistan and Myanmar are computed in [4,10,11,12]. One of the limitations of those works is that the east-west boundaries of the analysis area and incorporated islands are considered as straight lines.…”