O choque nos preços das commodities e a economia brasileira nos anos 2000

Cunha, André Moreira; Linck, Priscila

doi:10.1590/0101-35172019-2968

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Esta narrativa e, mais importante, a literatura que a sustenta, introduz uma assimetria explicativa sobre os choques de commodities, que parecem ter um poder maior para induzir trajetórias de alta no nível de atividades do que para explicar as contrações, especialmente no período pós-2014, conforme já havia sido constatado por Barbosa (2015), Borges (2016aBorges ( , 2016b, Lélis et al (2019), Pires et al (2019, dentre outros. Ademais, há lacunas importantes na oferta de evidências empíricas mais robustas que busquem estimar a importância relativa dos distintos determinantes potenciais das oscilações no nível de atividades.…”

Section: A Economia Brasileira Nos Anos 2000: O Papel Dos Ciclos De Commoditiesunclassified

“…Verificou-se que no ciclo de alta mais recente, que se inaugura em 2016, a recuperação nos preços das commodities não foi capaz de compensar os outros fatores domésticos (ou externos) que por ora bloqueiam uma retomada mais robusta do crescimento, tema explorado com maior profundidade em outros trabalhos (Bresser-Pereira et al, 2019;Dweck e Rossi, 2019;Pires et al, 2019). Sobre os ciclos de baixa, os nossos resultados convergem com aqueles já apresentados por Lélis et al (2019), de que o impacto da baixa nos preços das commodities entre 2014 e 2016 foi mais duradouro do que aquele observado em 2009 sob os efeitos da Crise Financeira Global (CFG).…”

Section: Introdução O Banco Mundialunclassified

“…Detalhes e referências em Hiratuka e Sarti (2017) eLélis et al (2019).4 Entre 1950 e 1980, o PIB do país cresceu, em média, 2,3% a.a. mais do que o PIB global; já de 1981 a 2019, tal diferença foi de -1,2% a.a. Na década de ouro (2003 a 2013) o diferencial foi de -0,4% a.a., ao passo que de 2014 a 2019 este indicador ficou em -3,9% a.a., o que o aproxima de outros períodos de crise intensa, como nos anos 1960(1963-1965: -3,5% a.a.), 1980 (1981-1983: -4,4% a.a.) e 1990 (1990-1992: -3,0% a.a.). Estimativas dos autores a partir de dados do IBGE, FMI (IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019) e Maddison Project Database.…”

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Flutuações no nível de atividade e os ciclos de preços de commodities: evidências para o Brasil

Cunha

Linck

2021

Brazil. J. Polit. Econ.

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RESUMO O presente trabalho investiga os impactos macroeconômicos dos preços das commodities na economia brasileira ao longo dos anos 2000. As metodologias econométricas empregadas permitiram identificar três ciclos de alta e três de baixa naqueles preços, todos eles apresentando os efeitos esperados de estimular o nível de atividades nos momentos em que os choques externos de preços são favoráveis; e o inverso, quando os choques de preços foram negativos. Os exercícios de decomposição permitiram isolar os efeitos dos choques de commodities dos demais determinantes potenciais do nível de atividades. Com isso, foi possível verificar que no ciclo de alta mais recente, que se inaugura em 2016, a recuperação nos preços das commodities não foi capaz de compensar os outros fatores domésticos (ou externos) que por ora bloqueiam uma retomada mais robusta da economia.

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Section: A Economia Brasileira Nos Anos 2000: O Papel Dos Ciclos De Commoditiesunclassified

Section: Introdução O Banco Mundialunclassified

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Flutuações no nível de atividade e os ciclos de preços de commodities: evidências para o Brasil

Cunha

Linck

2021

Brazil. J. Polit. Econ.

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“…The market is in constant economic and financial oscillation. The country faced a major impact on the economy from 2014 to 2016, with a significant slowdown (LELIS et al, 2019). These transformations also significantly affected the companies of the Industrial Pole of Manaus -PIM, where most companies reduced their staff due to the decrease in production demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Just In Time: Case Study In A Company Of The Industrial Center Of Manaus

Santos¹,

Júnior²

2023

Methodology Focused on the Area of Interdisciplinarity- V1

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Introduction/Problematization: Just in Time - JIT is a Japanese methodology that has been used since 1970, and has a great influence on the present day in organizations by portraying the ideal of only acquiring what is necessary to meet market demand. Objective/proposal: Tovalue the use of JIT in a company of the Polo Industrial of Manaus (PIM), a manufacturer of motorcycles. Methodological Procedures: A case study of exploratory nature was carried out to obtain information on the subject addressed, of qualitative nature in a company of the two-wheel subsector, through participant observation and unstructured interviews with the managers responsible for the management of materials Main Results: The research company has a well-structured local supply chain, with all major suppliers installed in the Industrial Pole of Manaus, which favors the use of JIT, through an extensive categorization of components, of various models of motorcycles, which allows the alignment of the production schedule with the schedule of delivery of local supplies. Final Considerations/Conclusion: The organization object of the study is one of the oldest and most important of the Industrial Pole of Manaus, both in the generation of direct and indirect jobs, as well as in billing. Decades- building relationships with your local suppliers make the JIT system reduce inventories at the automaker and supply chain, making it more responsive and efficient. Contributions from Work: The results of the research indicate that Just in Time generates a great impact on the production chain, reducing inventories and allocating the raw material in the focal company according to its production planning, avoiding unnecessary inventories and extra costs, mainly considering that the environment where the research was carried out has deficiencies in logistics infrastructure, and is far from the major consumer centers. The densification of the local production chain enables the implementation of the JIT in its essence, enabling gains for the automaker and its suppliers installed in PIM.

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“…The selection of these three specific years is not random. Indeed, 2001Indeed, , 2008Indeed, , and 2015 were meaningful years for the Brazilian economy and society: 2001 marked the beginning of the country's economic growth and other emerging economies, the global financial and economic crisis hit the world in 2008, and finally, in 2015, Brazil became immersed in a deep economic crisis (Lélis et al 2019;Serrano and Summa 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Back to the past: gains and losses in Brazilian society

et al. 2021

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During the first 15 years of the twenty-first century, Brazil’s economic growth and public policies were in the center of the debate on the growing “new middle class.” This new middle class is defined by people’s household income between the upper 10th percentile and the median (Neri, A Nova Classe Média, 2008). Although there has been a consensus about the increase in consumption and the improvement of living conditions for a significant proportion of the population, there is less agreement about the decline in inequality and the change in class distribution. Previous work was directed at challenging the very idea that Brazil had become a middle-class country during the first decade of this century, basically weighting class distribution against income distribution. In this article, we aim to step into the income distribution debate using six income groups as proportions of the median household per-capita income. Our data source is the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD-IBGE/Brazil) in 2001, 2008, and 2015. We analyze groups’ income distribution and characteristics using multinomial logistic models to take into account the effects of socioeconomic variables. We argue that there is significant stability in groups’ income structure during the period, revealing their resistance to inequalities (similar to the findings in the works of Piketty and Souza). We also indicate that the odds of being included in the upper-income categories are quite unequal, considering socioeconomic variables. Finally, we point out that the gains observed from 2001 to 2008 had faded by 2015 when the odds of being included in the upper-income categories were remarkably similar to those of 2001.

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O choque nos preços das commodities e a economia brasileira nos anos 2000

Cited by 9 publications

References 15 publications

Flutuações no nível de atividade e os ciclos de preços de commodities: evidências para o Brasil

Flutuações no nível de atividade e os ciclos de preços de commodities: evidências para o Brasil

Just In Time: Case Study In A Company Of The Industrial Center Of Manaus

Back to the past: gains and losses in Brazilian society

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