Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America

Féron, Sarah; Cordero, Raúl R.; Damiani, Alessandro; Llanillo, P. J.; Jorquera, José; Sepulveda, Edgardo; Asencio, Valentina; Laroze, David; Labbé, Fernando; Carrasco, Jorge; Torres, Gabe

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4

Cited by 93 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…2c,f,i,S1). This deficiency in the distribution of precipitation was also observed in the CMIP5 models and downscaled regional climate simulations (e.g., Yin et al 2013;Gulizia and Camilloni 2015;Sánchez et al 2015;Sierra et al 2015;Falco et al 2019;Llopart et al 2020a;Ortega et al 2021). GCMs also tend to produce overly strong precipitation over the central Andes in Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador and southwestern Colombia (Figs.…”

Section: Reference Period (1994-2015) Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 52%

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

et al. 2021

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We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

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Section: Reference Period (1994-2015) Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 52%

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

et al. 2021

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“…It is known that literature lacks a universal definition of HWs (e.g., [16]). The use of upper percentiles in T max and the choice of the least duration of three consecutive days in the adopted definition is consistent (or more strict) with definitions used in other relevant studies [41][42][43][44].…”

Section: Heat Wave Identification Processmentioning

confidence: 60%

Response of Urban Heat Stress to Heat Waves in Athens (1960–2017)

Katavoutas

Founda

2019

Atmosphere

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The increasing frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves seem to follow the observed global warming in recent decades. Vulnerability to heat waves is expected to increase in urban environments mainly due to population density and the effect of the urban heat island that make cities hotter than surrounding non-urban areas. The present study focuses on a vulnerable area of the eastern Mediterranean, already characterized as a ‘hot spot’ with respect to heat-related risk and investigates the change in heat stress levels during heat wave compared to non-heat wave conditions as well as the way that heat stress levels respond to heat waves in urban, compared to non-urban, environments. The adoption of a metric accounting for both the intensity and duration of the hot event yielded a total of 46 heat wave episodes over a nearly 60-year period, but with very rare occurrence until the late 1990s and a profound increased frequency thereafter. The results reveal a difference of at least one thermal stress category between heat wave and non-heat wave periods, which is apparent across the entire range of the thermal stress distribution. The analysis demonstrates a robust intensification of nighttime heat stress conditions in urban, compared to non-urban, sites during severe heat waves. Nevertheless, severe heat waves almost equalize heat stress conditions between urban and non-urban sites during midday.

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“…As Brazil has both tropical and subtropical climates, it is susceptible to atmospheric situations favourable to the occurrence of extreme heat (Cerne and Vera, 2011; Geirinhas et al ., 2017; Feron et al ., 2019). Over the past few years, extreme heat events have been reported by some authors in what concerns the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves (Marengo and Camargo, 2008; Bitencourt et al ., 2016; Ceccherini et al ., 2016; Salviano et al ., 2016; Geirinhas et al ., 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on heat stress in Brazil—Past, present, and future implications for occupational heat exposure

Bitencourt

Alves

Shibuya

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change has caused an increased occurrence of heat waves. As a result of rising temperatures, implications for health and the environment have been more frequently reported. Outdoor labour activities deserve special attention, as is the case with agricultural and construction workers exposed to extreme weather conditions, including intense heat. This paper presents an overview of heat stress conditions in Brazil from 1961 to 2010. It also presents computersimulated projections of heat stress conditions up to the late 21st century. The proposed climate analysis drew on historical weather data obtained from national weather stations and on reanalysis data, in addition to future projections with the ETA (regarding the model's unique vertical coordinate) regional forecast model. The projections took into consideration two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)-the 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios, namely, moderate and high emissions scenarios, respectively. Heat stress was inferred based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index. The results of this climate analysis show that Brazilian outdoor workers have been exposed to an increasing level of heat stress. These results suggest that future changes in the regional climate may increase the probability of heat stress situations in the next decades, with expectations of WBGT values greater than those observed in the baseline period (1961-1990). In terms of spatial distribution, the Brazilian western and northern regions experienced more critical heat stress conditions with higher WBGT values. As a response to the increased frequency trends of hot periods in tropical areas, urgent measures should be taken to review public policies in Brazil. Such policies should include actions towards better working conditions, technological development to improve outdoor labour activities, and employment legislation reviews to mitigate heat impacts on occupational health.

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Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America

Cited by 93 publications

References 81 publications

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

Response of Urban Heat Stress to Heat Waves in Athens (1960–2017)

Climate change impacts on heat stress in Brazil—Past, present, and future implications for occupational heat exposure

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