Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change

Padrón, Ryan S.; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Decharme, Bertrand; Ducharne, Agnès; Lawrence, David M.; Mao, Jiafu; Peano, Daniele; Krinner, Gerhard; Kim, Hyungjun; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

doi:10.1038/s41561-020-0594-1

Cited by 183 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Furthermore, we also find that this drying signal has been amplified in recent decades. While this result should not be interpreted as a formal attribution to anthropogenic factors, it is in agreement with recent studies attributing dry-season water imbalance changes to humaninduced climate change 39 .…”

Section: How Anomalous Was Summer 2019 In Europe?supporting

confidence: 91%

Distinct influences of large-scale circulation and regional feedbacks in two exceptional 2019 European heatwaves

Sousa

Barriopedro

García‐Herrera

et al. 2020

Commun Earth Environ

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Two separate heatwaves affected western Europe in June and July 2019, in particular France, Belgium, the Netherlands, western Germany and northeastern Spain. Here we compare the European 2019 summer temperatures to multi-proxy reconstructions of temperatures since 1500, and analyze the relative influence of synoptic conditions and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on both heatwave events. We find that a subtropical ridge was a common synoptic set-up to both heatwaves. However, whereas the June heatwave was mostly associated with warm advection of a Saharan air mass intrusion, land surface processes were relevant for the magnitude of the July heatwave. Enhanced radiative fluxes and precipitation reduction during early July added to the soil moisture deficit that had been initiated by the June heatwave. We show this deficit was larger than it would have been in the past decades, pointing to climate change imprint. We conclude that land-atmosphere feedbacks as well as remote influences through northward propagation of dryness contributed to the exceptional intensity of the July heatwave.

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Section: How Anomalous Was Summer 2019 In Europe?supporting

confidence: 91%

Distinct influences of large-scale circulation and regional feedbacks in two exceptional 2019 European heatwaves

Sousa

Barriopedro

García‐Herrera

et al. 2020

Commun Earth Environ

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“…northern Eurasia, and South Africa were also expected to become more arid, which was consistent with existing aridity observations and predictions (Padrón et al, 2020;Samaniego et al, 2018;Zhou et al, 2019).…”

Section: Signs Of Covariation In Long-term Ef and Runoffsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Vegetation transpiration occupies most of the amount of ET, so vegetation controls can greatly affect the variability of land ET (Costa et al, 2010;Jaramillo et al, 2018;Wei et al, 2017;Williams et al, 2012). Moreover, human activities including agricultural irrigation and land use management, are constantly altering the exchange of water and heat between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere (Padrón et al, 2020;Teuling et al, 2019). The semi-empirical equations of ET and offline drought indices also prove challenging when taking these effects into consideration (Yang et al, 2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term relative decline in evapotranspiration with increasing runoff on fractional land surfaces

Wang¹,

Gentine²,

Yin³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) accompanied by water and heat transport in the hydrological cycle is a key component in regulating surface aridity. Existing studies on changes in surface aridity have typically estimated ET using semi-empirical equations or parameterizations of land surface processes, which are based on the assumption that the parameters in the equation are stationary. However, plant physiological effects and its response to a changing environment are dynamically modifying ET, thereby challenging this assumption and limiting the estimation of long-term ET. In this study, the latent heat flux (ET in energy units) and sensible heat flux were retrieved for recent decades on a global scale using machine learning approach and driven by ground-based observations from flux towers and weather stations. The study resulted in several findings, namely that the evaporative fraction (EF) – the ratio of latent heat flux to available surface energy – exhibited a relatively decreasing trend on fractional land surfaces; In particular, the decrease in EF was accompanied by an increase in long-term runoff as assessed by precipitation (P) minus ET, accounting for 27.06 % of the global land areas. The signs were indicative of reduced surface conductance, which further emphasized that land-surface vegetation has major impacts on regulating the water and energy cycles, as well as aridity variability.

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“…The potential for irrigation expansion is an important factor to evaluate for future climate adaptation strategies in agriculture ( 49 ). Increases in water-stress and changes in precipitation patterns over rain-fed croplands are already well documented ( 50 ). By investigating where rain-fed cropping systems are suitable for and benefit the most from sustainable irrigation expansion, this work contributes to identifying future target regions where investments in sustainable intensification of agriculture through irrigation expansion are needed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

Rosa

Chiarelli

Sangiorgio

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

147

117

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Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.

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Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change

Cited by 183 publications

References 39 publications

Distinct influences of large-scale circulation and regional feedbacks in two exceptional 2019 European heatwaves

Distinct influences of large-scale circulation and regional feedbacks in two exceptional 2019 European heatwaves

Long-term relative decline in evapotranspiration with increasing runoff on fractional land surfaces

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

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