Occurrence rate of extreme magnetic storms

Yermolaev, Yu. I.; Лодкина, И. Г.; Nikolaeva, N. S.; Yermolaev, M. Yu.

doi:10.1002/jgra.50467

Cited by 52 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Kataoka (2013) estimated that the probability of a Carrington-type geomagnetic storm occurring within the next decade is approximately 4% to 6%. Yermolaev et al (2013) performed a statistical analysis of the OMNI data for the period 1976 to 2000 and concluded that a Carrington-type event could occur once every 500 years (see also Alves et al 2011). From the flare onset to the geomagnetic storm onset, Carrington (1859) gave a time of approximately 17.5 h from the flare to the storm, which indicates a CME speed of approximately 2,360 km/s (Gopalswamy et al 2005c).…”

Section: Extreme Space Weathermentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

Gopalswamy

Tsurutani

Yan

2015

Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci.

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This paper presents an overview of results obtained during the CAWSES-II period on the short-term variability of the Sun and how it affects the near-Earth space environment. CAWSES-II was planned to examine the behavior of the solar-terrestrial system as the solar activity climbed to its maximum phase in solar cycle 24. After a deep minimum following cycle 23, the Sun climbed to a very weak maximum in terms of the sunspot number in cycle 24 (MiniMax24), so many of the results presented here refer to this weak activity in comparison with cycle 23. The short-term variability that has immediate consequence to Earth and geospace manifests as solar eruptions from closed-field regions and high-speed streams from coronal holes. Both electromagnetic (flares) and mass emissions (coronal mass ejections -CMEs) are involved in solar eruptions, while coronal holes result in high-speed streams that collide with slow wind forming the so-called corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Fast CMEs affect Earth via leading shocks accelerating energetic particles and creating large geomagnetic storms. CIRs and their trailing high-speed streams (HSSs), on the other hand, are responsible for recurrent small geomagnetic storms and extended days of auroral zone activity, respectively. The latter leads to the acceleration of relativistic magnetospheric 'killer' electrons. One of the major consequences of the weak solar activity is the altered physical state of the heliosphere that has serious implications for the shock-driving and storm-causing properties of CMEs. Finally, a discussion is presented on extreme space weather events prompted by the 23 July 2012 super storm event that occurred on the backside of the Sun. Many of these studies were enabled by the simultaneous availability of remote sensing and in situ observations from multiple vantage points with respect to the Sun-Earth line.

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Section: Extreme Space Weathermentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

Gopalswamy

Tsurutani

Yan

2015

Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci.

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“…The very low statistical significance of severe storms is a key issue for model calibration, that is fed by data mainly from moderate to intense disturbances, due to the lack of severe storms in the sample (Srivastava 2005;Kataoka 2013;Yermolaev et al 2013). Carrington (1859) connected ''two patches of intensely bright and white light'' in a large solar spot with ''a moderate but very marked magnetic disturbance of short duration'' in Kew magnetic records followed by the commencement of a great magnetic storm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On extreme geomagnetic storms

Cid

Palacios

Sáiz

et al. 2014

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa.

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“…The SYM-H value (the symmetric disturbance index for the H-component, 1 min time cadence) for this storm was −710 nT (Lakhina and Tsurutani 2016). The occurrence rate of a storm comparable to the March 1989 storm has been estimated to be once every 60 years (Tsubouchi and Omura 2007;Riley 2012;Kataoka 2013), although it has been argued that such storms cannot be predicted with reasonable accuracy (Willis et al 1997;Tsurutani et al 2003;Love 2012;Yermolaev et al 2013;Love et al 2015;Lakhina and Tsurutani 2016). The solar wind parameters were not very extreme at the time of the 1989 storm.…”

Section: Rc-type Slow Gicsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Extreme geomagnetically induced currents

Kataoka

Ngwira

2016

Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci.

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We propose an emergency alert framework for geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), based on the empirically extreme values and theoretical upper limits of the solar wind parameters and of dB/dt, the time derivative of magnetic field variations at ground. We expect this framework to be useful for preparing against extreme events. Our analysis is based on a review of various papers, including those presented during Extreme Space Weather Workshops held in Japan in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Large-amplitude dB/dt values are the major cause of hazards associated with three different types of GICs: (1) slow dB/dt with ring current evolution (RC-type), (2) fast dB/dt associated with auroral electrojet activity (AE-type), and (3) transient dB/dt of sudden commencements (SC-type). We set "caution," "warning," and "emergency" alert levels during the main phase of superstorms with the peak Dst index of less than −300 nT (once per 10 years), −600 nT (once per 60 years), or −900 nT (once per 100 years), respectively. The extreme dB/dt values of the AE-type GICs are 2000, 4000, and 6000 nT/min at caution, warning, and emergency levels, respectively. For the SCtype GICs, a "transient alert" is also proposed for dB/dt values of 40 nT/s at low latitudes and 110 nT/s at high latitudes, especially when the solar energetic particle flux is unusually high.

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Occurrence rate of extreme magnetic storms

Cited by 52 publications

References 29 publications

Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

Short-term variability of the Sun-Earth system: an overview of progress made during the CAWSES-II period

On extreme geomagnetic storms

Extreme geomagnetically induced currents

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