On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall: A further study

Wu, Bingyi; Zhang, Renhe; Wang, Bin

doi:10.1007/s00376-009-9009-3

Cited by 51 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…On the other hand, the contribution of the Arctic SIC to summer precipitation over NC has been excessively explored (Uotila et al, ; Wu et al, ; Wu et al, ; Zhao et al, ). The anomalies of Arctic SIC is closely related to the anomalies of snow cover over Eurasia, which can cause anomalous soil moisture over east Asia (Zhang & Zuo, ) and a polar‐Eurasia teleconnection pattern (Li et al, ) to future influence the following summer circulation anomalies over NC.…”

Section: Definitions and Statistical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is the Regional Precipitation Predictable in Decadal Scale? A Possible Approach for the Decadal Prediction of the Summer Precipitation Over North China

Huang

Wang

2020

Earth and Space Science

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A skillful decadal precipitation (DP) prediction is beneficial for infrastructure implementation, water management, and sustainable development, which currently face many challenges. In this study, a new increment method is applied to the decadal prediction of summer precipitation during 1961-2014 over North China, which has suffered water resource scarcity and increased droughts in recent decades. There are three steps in the increment method. First, the DP over North China is obtained by applying a 5-year running mean. Second, the 3-year decadal increment (DI) of the DP (DP at the current year minus the DP at the 3 years before, DI_DP) is predicted by a statistical model with the leading 3-year DI of sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic and the leading 4-year DI of the sea ice concentration over the East Siberian Sea. Third, the well-predicted DI_DP is added to the observed DP at 3 years ago to obtain the final DP prediction. With realistic DP prediction, including correct regime shifts, the increment method provides a promising and valuable approach to decadal climate prediction.

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Section: Definitions and Statistical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is the Regional Precipitation Predictable in Decadal Scale? A Possible Approach for the Decadal Prediction of the Summer Precipitation Over North China

Huang

Wang

2020

Earth and Space Science

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“…Peterson and White, 1998;Yuan and Martinson, 2000). The links of the Antarctic sea ice with the largescale precipitation over different parts of the globe, for instance, over Australia (White, 2000), China (Xue et al, 2003;Wu et al, 2009) have been brought out. Similarly, the relationships of the Arctic sea ice extent with certain parameters like the North Atlantic oscillation, Hadley circulation and the Asian summer monsoon rainfall are also highlighted in some recent studies (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability with the geophysical parameters over the Arctic region

Prabhu

Mahajan

Khaladkar³

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A study is carried out to understand whether the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability is associated with the geophysical parameters over the Arctic region. The correlation analyses of the satellite-derived sea ice data for 29 years indicate that out of 9 sectors of the Arctic region, the Kara and Barents Seas sector's Sea Ice Extent (KBS SIE) during October has a strong relationship with the All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) in the following year. This relationship is more pronounced for the extreme cases, which are identified as the drought or the excess monsoon years. Moreover, the composites of certain geophysical parameters over the Arctic also behave in tandem with the monsoon rainfall. In order to test the relationship of these geophysical parameters with the monsoon rainfall, a case of the recent drought of 2009 is independently evaluated. The results obtained in this study bring out that KBS SIE and some other parameters of the Arctic region can be used as potential predictors in the long-range forecasting of AISMR with a lead period of more than six months. A table indicating the qualitative forecast of the monsoon rainfall is presented on the basis of some parameters of the Arctic region. The mean sea level pressure anomaly tendency over northwest Europe during winter, which is one of the predictors used for forecasting the AISMR, is significantly correlated with the KBS SIE during the preceding October. As such, with the knowledge of October KBS SIE, this parameter can also be foreseen a few months in advance.

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“…The wintertime responses of atmospheric circulation to changes in Arctic sea ice in autumn and winter have been extensively examined in both observational and modelling analysis (Petoukhov and Semenov, ; Li and Wang, ; Liu et al ., ; Tang et al ., ; Luo et al ., ; ). A variety of circulation changes have been identified, such as the occurrence of the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern (Liu et al ., ; Tang et al ., ; Mori et al ., ; Luo et al ., ), the negative phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (Jaiser et al ., ; Liu et al ., ; Luo et al ., ), and mid‐latitude teleconnections (Dethloff et al ., ; Wu et al ., ; ; Liu et al ., ). In addition, changes in the Arctic may also exert an influence on UB through propagation of the North Atlantic–Eurasian wave train (Wu et al ., ; ; Dethloff et al ., ; Liu and Alexander, ; Liu et al ., ; Sato et al ., ; Simmonds and Govekar, ; Wang and Chen, ; Woollings et al ., ; Sun et al ., ) and the eddy‐driven mid‐latitude jet stream anomaly over the North Atlantic (Deser et al ., ; Cheung and Zhou, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of Arctic sea ice on the inter‐annual variations of summer Ural blocking

Zhang

Sun

Zhang

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The influence of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on the inter‐annual variations of the frequency of summertime Ural blocking (UB) during the period of 1980–2013 is investigated using observational and reanalysis data sets and version 5.0 of the Community Atmospheric Model. The results reveal that the variations in the UB frequency display a statistically significant association with a persistent spring–summer SIC pattern in the Barents Sea. Related to high UB frequencies, heavy SICs exert a dynamic influence by increasing the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) in the lower troposphere and cause stronger (weaker) zonal winds in high‐latitude (mid‐latitude) areas through the thermal wind balance. This zonal wind pattern establishes the background conditions for the blocking activity and thus helps to initiate summertime UB events. Moreover, persistent heavy SICs tend to enhance the low‐level atmospheric baroclinicity to the south and decreases in mid‐latitude areas, inducing weakened synoptic‐scale transient eddy activity (STEA) that stretches from eastern Europe to the Ural Mountains. This reduced STEA is accompanied by a locally intensified eddy‐vorticity forcing that may exert a downstream influence on the onset of UB events. In terms of thermodynamic processes, heavy SICs‐induced water vapour content anomalies are expected to cause deficits in precipitation over the East European Plateau in late spring and subsequently desiccate the underlying soil. Both of these effects are expected to increase surface heat fluxes and thickness of the lower‐middle troposphere, thus favouring anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Ural Mountains. On the other hand, the opposite dynamic and thermodynamic effects are expected to result from light SICs with respect to low UB frequencies. Therefore, these two effects identified in this study each contribute to an increased probability of more frequent (rare) UB events in summer as the spring–summer sea ice within the regions surrounding the Barents Sea expands (disappears).

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On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall: A further study

Cited by 51 publications

References 46 publications

Is the Regional Precipitation Predictable in Decadal Scale? A Possible Approach for the Decadal Prediction of the Summer Precipitation Over North China

Is the Regional Precipitation Predictable in Decadal Scale? A Possible Approach for the Decadal Prediction of the Summer Precipitation Over North China

Association of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability with the geophysical parameters over the Arctic region

The impact of Arctic sea ice on the inter‐annual variations of summer Ural blocking

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