2016
DOI: 10.1007/s00199-016-0971-6
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On the sovereign debt paradox

Abstract: International audienceBulow and Rogoff (Am Econ Rev 79(1):43–50, 1989) show that lending to small countries cannot be supported merely on the country’s “reputation for repayment” if exclusion from future credit markets is the only consequence of default. Their arguments are valid under fairly general conditions, but they do not go through when the output of the sovereign may vanish along a path of successive low productivity shocks, or when it may grow unboundedly along a path of successive high productivity s… Show more

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Cited by 9 publications
(1 citation statement)
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“…To clarify this point, we carry out the natural counterfactual experiment: we introduce elementary Arrow securities so as to complete markets while preserving prices of the risk‐free bond. In particular, we consider elementary Arrow securities with prices π in double-struckRS×S satisfying qs=πss+πsŝ. Furthermore, among the several market values of Arrow securities consistent with the given bond prices, we choose those ensuring a finite present value of the borrower's future endowment, as required by Bulow and Rogoff (1989a) to rule out Ponzi‐type debt contracts (see also Martins‐da‐Rocha and Vailakis (2017)). Notice that the Perron–Frobenius theorem asserts that there exists a dominant root λ>0 such that, for some positive vector b in double-struckRS, λ(bhbl)=(πhhπhlπlhπll)(bhbl). Thus, we select prices of elementary Arrow securities to guarantee that λ<1, and this condition is equivalent to a finite valuation of the future endowment (see Appendix C).…”
Section: A Motivating Examplementioning
confidence: 99%
“…To clarify this point, we carry out the natural counterfactual experiment: we introduce elementary Arrow securities so as to complete markets while preserving prices of the risk‐free bond. In particular, we consider elementary Arrow securities with prices π in double-struckRS×S satisfying qs=πss+πsŝ. Furthermore, among the several market values of Arrow securities consistent with the given bond prices, we choose those ensuring a finite present value of the borrower's future endowment, as required by Bulow and Rogoff (1989a) to rule out Ponzi‐type debt contracts (see also Martins‐da‐Rocha and Vailakis (2017)). Notice that the Perron–Frobenius theorem asserts that there exists a dominant root λ>0 such that, for some positive vector b in double-struckRS, λ(bhbl)=(πhhπhlπlhπll)(bhbl). Thus, we select prices of elementary Arrow securities to guarantee that λ<1, and this condition is equivalent to a finite valuation of the future endowment (see Appendix C).…”
Section: A Motivating Examplementioning
confidence: 99%