Operational Hydrometeorological Forecast System for Espírito Santo State, Brazil

Filho, Augusto José Pereira; Pereira, José de Araujo; Vemado, Felipe; Silva, Ivon W.

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0001215

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…On November 18, 2010, Tubarão Harbor located at ES experienced a severe thunderstorm event (the same mentioned in Section 1) that resulted in the destruction of two loading structures operated by VALE, a prominent Mining Company in South America. The incident was triggered by a rapidly moving cold front, generating super cells and wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h at approximately 11:00 p.m. UTC [9]. The disruptive weather event led to interruptions in shipping loading operations, causing considerable economic losses, with the potential for greater impact.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This event was a severe thunderstorm that generated wind gusts exceeding 100 km/h, leading to significant economic losses. Further details about this event can be found in the study by [9]. In their study, the authors described an operational hydrometeorological forecast system designed for ES, developed in response to the aforementioned extreme event, with the aim of improving its nowcasting capabilities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In their study, the authors described an operational hydrometeorological forecast system designed for ES, developed in response to the aforementioned extreme event, with the aim of improving its nowcasting capabilities. [9] draw attention to, among other things, the need for ultra high resolution numerical weather prediction systems, higher spatial and temporal resolution monitoring systems, integrated environmental information systems, and advanced science and technology in order to develop better diagnostic and prognostic weather products.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of a High Resolution WRF Model for Southeast Brazilian Coast: The Importance of Physical Parameterization to Wind Representation

Gonçalves,

Kaiser,

Palmeira

et al. 2024

Preprint

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This study assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a high-resolution spatial grid (1 km) with various combinations of physical parameterization packages to simulate a severe event in August 2021 in the southeastern Brazilian coast. After determining the optimal set of physical parameterizations for representing wind patterns during this event, a year-long evaluation was conducted, covering forecast horizons of 24, 48, and 72 hours. The simulation results were compared with observational wind data from four weather stations. The findings highlight variations in the efficacy of different physical parameterization sets, with certain sets encountering challenges in accurately depicting the peak of the severe event. The most favorable results were achieved using a combination of Tiedtke (cumulus), Thompson (microphysics), TKE (boundary layer), Monin-Obukhov (surface layer), Unified-NOAH (land surface), and RRTMG (shortwave and longwave radiation). Over the one-year forecasting period, the WRF model effectively represented the overall wind pattern, including forecasts up to three days in advance (72-hour forecast horizon). Generally, the statistical metrics indicate robust model performance, even for the 72-hour forecast horizon, with correlation coefficients consistently exceeding 0.60 at all analyzed points. While the model proficiently captured wind distribution, it tended to overestimate northeast wind speed and gust intensities. Notably, forecast accuracy decreased as stations approached the ocean, exemplified by the ATPM station.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Evaluation of a High Resolution WRF Model for Southeast Brazilian Coast: The Importance of Physical Parameterization to Wind Representation

Gonçalves,

Kaiser,

Palmeira

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Evidence of Tornadoes and Microbursts in São Paulo State, Brazil: A Synoptic and Mesoscale Analysis

Filho

Vemado

Karam

2019

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Evaluation of a High Resolution WRF Model for Southeast Brazilian Coast: The Importance of Physical Parameterization to Wind Representation

Gonçalves,

Kaiser,

Palmeira

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a high-resolution spatial grid (1 km) with various combinations of physical parameterization packages to simulate a severe event in August 2021 in the southeastern Brazilian coast. After determining the optimal set of physical parameterizations for representing wind patterns during this event, a year-long evaluation was conducted, covering forecast horizons of 24, 48, and 72 h. The simulation results were compared with observational wind data from four weather stations. The findings highlight variations in the efficacy of different physical parameterization sets, with certain sets encountering challenges in accurately depicting the peak of the severe event. The most favorable results were achieved using a combination of Tiedtke (cumulus), Thompson (microphysics), TKE (boundary layer), Monin-Obukhov (surface layer), Unified-NOAH (land surface), and RRTMG (shortwave and longwave radiation). Over the one-year forecasting period, the WRF model effectively represented the overall wind pattern, including forecasts up to three days in advance (72-h forecast horizon). Generally, the statistical metrics indicate robust model performance, even for the 72-h forecast horizon, with correlation coefficients consistently exceeding 0.60 at all analyzed points. While the model proficiently captured wind distribution, it tended to overestimate northeast wind speed and gust intensities. Notably, forecast accuracy decreased as stations approached the ocean, exemplified by the ATPM station.

show abstract

Operational Hydrometeorological Forecast System for Espírito Santo State, Brazil

Cited by 4 publications

References 5 publications

Evaluation of a High Resolution WRF Model for Southeast Brazilian Coast: The Importance of Physical Parameterization to Wind Representation

Evaluation of a High Resolution WRF Model for Southeast Brazilian Coast: The Importance of Physical Parameterization to Wind Representation

Evidence of Tornadoes and Microbursts in São Paulo State, Brazil: A Synoptic and Mesoscale Analysis

Evaluation of a High Resolution WRF Model for Southeast Brazilian Coast: The Importance of Physical Parameterization to Wind Representation

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