Opposite effects of ocean temperature on survival rates of 120 stocks of Pacific salmon (<i>Oncorhynchus</i> spp.) in northern and southern areas

Mueter, Franz J.; Peterman, Randall M.; Pyper, Brian J.

doi:10.1139/f02-020

Cited by 211 publications

(246 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…We did not model climate effects such as rising sea levels and ocean warming that are likely to decrease survival in this region (14) but for which reliable regional projections have not been developed (15). We also considered only the dominant Chinook salmon life-history type in this system: subyearling outmigrant (or ''ocean-type'') fish, which rear in fresh water in the late winter and spring, migrating to sea by June.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Battin

Wiley

Ruckelshaus

et al. 2007

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

342

301

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Throughout the world, efforts are under way to restore watersheds, but restoration planning rarely accounts for future climate change. Using a series of linked models of climate, land cover, hydrology, and salmon population dynamics, we investigated the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of proposed habitat restoration efforts designed to recover depleted Chinook salmon populations in a Pacific Northwest river basin. Model results indicate a large negative impact of climate change on freshwater salmon habitat. Habitat restoration and protection can help to mitigate these effects and may allow populations to increase in the face of climate change. The habitat deterioration associated with climate change will, however, make salmon recovery targets much more difficult to attain. Because the negative impacts of climate change in this basin are projected to be most pronounced in relatively pristine, high-elevation streams where little restoration is possible, climate change and habitat restoration together are likely to cause a spatial shift in salmon abundance. River basins that span the current snow line appear especially vulnerable to climate change, and salmon recovery plans that enhance lower-elevation habitats are likely to be more successful over the next 50 years than those that target the higher-elevation basins likely to experience the greatest snow-rain transition.Chinook salmon ͉ hydrologic model ͉ population model ͉ Snohomish River ͉ stream flow O ver the past decade, billions of dollars have been spent on the restoration of aquatic habitats throughout the United States (1). In the northwestern U.S., aquatic habitat restoration has been driven largely by the Endangered Species Act, under which several species of Pacific salmon have been listed. The listings have led to the development of salmon recovery plans for watersheds throughout the region. Long-term freshwater habitat protection and restoration projects are central to all plans. Planners rely heavily on fish habitat models to evaluate the potential effectiveness of proposed restoration strategies, and numerous models have been developed to predict restoration effects. In almost all cases, these models assume stationary future climate conditions when assessing how restoration will affect fish abundance and productivity. Given the increasing certainty that climate change is accelerating, models that ignore the potential effects of future climate may generate misleading predictions of the relative benefits of different recovery strategies.The northwestern U.S. has warmed by between 0.7 and 0.9°C during the 20th century. Since 1950, average annual air temperatures at the majority of meteorological stations in the region have risen by Ϸ0.25°C/decade (2), and climate models predict another 1.5-3.2°C increase by the middle of the 21st century (3). Higher air temperatures are likely to increase water temperatures, which could be harmful to salmon during the spawning, incubation, and rearing stages of their life cycle (4). Warmer temperatures a...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Battin

Wiley

Ruckelshaus

et al. 2007

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

342

301

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“…However, such analyses must first reduce the uncertainties in the connections among farm locations, salmon migration routes, and infection risk, which our assessment of infection scenarios suggests affect the estimated effects of lice on survival. In addition, we note that although we focused on estimating the effects of lice on salmon survival, many other factors affect the population dynamics of Pacific salmon (41)(42)(43). Our use of a multistock mixed-effects model helps control for these other factors by assimilating information across spatially covarying exposed and unexposed populations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of parasites from salmon farms on productivity of wild salmon

Krkošek

Connors

Morton

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The ecological risks of salmon aquaculture have motivated changes to management and policy designed to protect wild salmon populations and habitats in several countries. In Canada, much attention has focused on outbreaks of parasitic copepods, sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis), on farmed and wild salmon in the Broughton Archipelago, British Columbia. Several recent studies have reached contradictory conclusions on whether the spread of lice from salmon farms affects the productivity of sympatric wild salmon populations. We analyzed recently available sea lice data on farms and spawner-recruit data for pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) salmon populations in the Broughton Archipelago and nearby regions where farms are not present. Our results show that sea lice abundance on farms is negatively associated with productivity of both pink and coho salmon in the Broughton Archipelago. These results reconcile the contradictory findings of previous studies and suggest that management and policy measures designed to protect wild salmon from sea lice should yield conservation and fishery benefits.

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“…In both nearshore and offshore environments of British Columbia, the timing of peak zooplankton biomass advanced by 6 to 8 wk between 1975 and 1998 (Mackas et al 1998) and was associated with reproductive failure for the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus due to a mismatch in the timing of reproduction and prey availability (Bertram et al 2001). Productivity and marine survival of salmonids in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and California were greatly reduced from the mid to late 1990s , Cole 2000, Welch et al 2000, Botsford & Lawrence 2002, Mueter et al 2002. Coincident with the strong La Nina event in 1999, zooplankton biomass increased and the community composition changed within coastal regions of British Columbia , Mackas & Galbraith 2002, Zamon & Welch 2005.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of interdecadal climate variability on marine trophic interactions: rhinoceros auklets and their fish prey

Hedd

Bertram²,

Ryder³

et al. 2006

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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This paper presents time-series information on the diet composition and breeding performance of rhinoceros auklet Cerorhinca monocerata at Triangle Island, British Columbia, Canada, during 15 breeding seasons between 1976 and 2001. Three shifts in ocean climate occurred within British Columbia during this period (1976-77, 1989-90, 1998-99), allowing us to evaluate associations between marine environmental conditions and the reproduction of this piscivorous seabird. Lipid-rich Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus was the single most important prey delivered to chicks across years (15 yr avg. 38%; annual range 4 to 86%). Interannual variability was high, but in general breeding performance was strongest when 0+ sand lance predominated chick diets. Other annually important prey taxa included Pacific saury Cololabis saira, juvenile rockfishes Sebastes spp., Pacific herring Clupea pallasi and juvenile salmonid Oncorhynchus spp. The dietary importance of these prey also varied seasonally. Marine environmental conditions (evaluated using sea surface temperatures, SSTs) were clearly associated with reproduction of rhinoceros auklet, as both occurrence of sand lance in the diet and the growth rates of chicks diminished as spring SSTs increased (r = -0.680, p < 0.01, and r = -0.697, p < 0.01, respectively). We hypothesized that recruitment to local sand lance populations was temperature dependent. The strong negative relationship between dietary occurrence of 0+ sand lance and spring SST (r = -0.560, p < 0.05), coupled with the lack of a similar relationship for 1+ sand lance (p > 0.20), was consistent with the temperature-dependent recruitment hypothesis. Our data suggest that SSTs could interact with population age structure to affect the recruitment dynamics of Pacific sand lance. We estimated the annual dietary importance of 0+ sand lance to rhinoceros auklets using spring SST and the importance of 0+ sand lance in the diet the previous year.

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Opposite effects of ocean temperature on survival rates of 120 stocks of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in northern and southern areas

Cited by 211 publications

References 24 publications

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Effects of parasites from salmon farms on productivity of wild salmon

Effects of interdecadal climate variability on marine trophic interactions: rhinoceros auklets and their fish prey

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