Optimal control model of human-to-human transmission of monkeypox virus

Abstract

Background: The number of monkeypox cases is rising globally, but it’s unclear how many instances there will be in the near future. The disease has been one of the major problems for sub-Saharan Africans in the past few years. Methods: A deterministic mathematical model incorporating optimal controls has been developed in this research to investigate the transmission of the monkeypox virus. The model’s fundamental properties such as positivity and boundedness of solution, and basic reproduction number have been examined. In order to assess the efficacy of two preventative control strategies—public education and vaccination—optimal controls were included in the model and Pontragyin’s maximum principle used to characterized the model. Results: Public education was found to have less of an effect on those who were vulnerable than vaccine control. However, both approaches were successful in reducing the number of people who were exposed to the illness and reducing the number of fatalities. Additionally, vaccination increases a person’s immunity, which speeds up their recovery. Conclusions: A deterministic classical model incorporating optimal controls was proposed to study the monkeypox virus dynamics in a population. The disease is not endemic, which is explained by the model’s basic reproduction number, which was less than unity. Based on the findings of this study, we advise vaccine control plan as the most effective preventative measure.