Optimizing Adaptable Systems for Future Uncertainty

Abstract

Demands on structures and infrastructures change over their service life and cannot be predicted with certainty. Adaptable (or flexible) infrastructure designs are thus potentially beneficial, enabling easier adjustments of the systems at a later stage. However, systematic quantitative investigations and corresponding recommendations are missing. In (Špačková and Straub 2016), we present a framework for such an analysis, which is based on sequential decision processes. In this contribution, we summarize the approach and focus on the interpretation of flexibility. We show that the framework enables quantification of the value of flexibility, to answer the question: what is the maximum amount that should be spent additionally to ensure system flexibility? Two case studies illustrate that this value is strongly dependent on a number of factors, in particular on the types of uncertainty present and the amount of future information collected in the future.

Vergleich der Versagenswahrscheinlichkeit und der Versagenshäufigkeit von Brücken

“…Sehr schön ist diese Entwicklung bei den Erdbebeneinwirkungen zu sehen (siehe Bild ). Unter Umständen kann man die mögliche nachträgliche Ertüchtigung von Bauwerken für neue Einwirkungen im Rahmen der Bemessung berücksichtigen .…”