Optimizing the routing of ship’s tropical cyclone avoidance based on the numerical forecasts

Xiao, Changshi

doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0729-4

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…There are little research about the evaluation the economic benefit of a RATC. Wu et al (2013) constructed a model to optimize the route to avoid a TC using numerical model results. But, in their model, the risk areas, which the ship cannot navigate, are simply treated as where the wind speed is higher than a certain value.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Safe-economical route model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment

Wen

et al. 2014

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In heavy sea conditions related to tropical cyclones (TCs), losses to shipping caused by capsizing are greater than other kinds of accidents. Therefore, it is important to consider capsizing risk in the algorithms used to generate safe-economic routes that avoid tropical cyclones (RATC). A safe-economic routing and assessment model for RATC, based on a dynamic forecasting environment, is presented in this paper. In the proposed model, a ship's risk is quantified using its capsizing probability caused by heavy wave conditions. Forecasting errors in the numerical models are considered in the ship risk assessment according to their distribution characteristics. A case study shows that: the economic cost of RATCs is associated not only to the ship's speed, but also to the acceptable capsizing probability which is related with the ship's characteristic and the cargo loading condition. Case study results demonstrate that the optimal routes obtained from the model proposed in this paper are superior to those produced by traditional methods.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%