Optimizing U.S. Mitigation Strategies for the Light-Duty Transportation Sector: What We Learn from a Bottom-Up Model

Abstract

Few integrated analysis models examine significant U.S. transportation greenhouse gas emission reductions within an integrated energy system. Our analysis, using a bottom-up MARKet ALocation (MARKAL) model, found that stringent systemwide CO 2 reduction targets will be required to achieve significant CO 2 reductions from the transportation sector. Mitigating transportation emission reductions can result in significant changes in personal vehicle technologies, increases in vehicle fuel efficiency, and decreases in overall transportation fuel use. We analyze policy-oriented mitigation strategies and suggest that mitigation policies should be informed by the transitional nature of technology adoptions and the interactions between the mitigation strategies, and the robustness of mitigation strategies to long-term reduction goals, input assumptions, and policy and social factors. More research is needed to help identify robust policies that will achieve the best outcome in the face of uncertainties.

Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

“…There is agreement among mainstream climate policy theorists, economists and, increasingly, policymakers that the best framework for reducing United States (US) GHG emissions is through economy-wide market-based schemes (e.g., taxes or cap-and-trade). Some studies show that the electric sector has the lowest marginal costs of emissions reduction and, as a result, would provide the bulk of near-term mitigation in an economywide policy regime (EIA, 2007(EIA, , 2008bEPA, 2007;IEA, 2008;Yeh et al, 2008). The exact role that the US transport sector would play in reducing GHGs under this regime is unclear.…”

“…A number of other studies investigate different aspects of GHG reductions in US transportation, but none consider multiple scenarios for making deep reductions from all subsectors within the same study. Many scenario analyses (e.g., Bandivadekar et al, 2008;Grimes-Casey et al, 2009;Mui et al, 2007;NRC, 2008;Yeh et al, 2008) concentrate only on light-duty vehicles (LDV) since they make up such a large share (60%) of US transport GHGs. Olabisi et al (2009) take a more comprehensive approach, analyzing the potential for economy-wide reductions of 80% in Minnesota; yet here too, less treatment is given to the non-LDVs subsectors.…”

“…Some other studies that also use a bottom-up energy systems optimization model approach include Schäfer and Jacoby (2006), IEA (2008), and Yeh et al (2008). In one analysis, Schäfer and Jacoby (2006) combine MARKAL with a computable general equilibrium model and a modal split model to estimate the impact of advanced vehicle technologies on GHGs and conclude that given an economy-wide reduction target, advanced vehicles are not utilized in large numbers until gasoline prices rise to US$9.50/gal ($2.50/L).…”

Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach

“…The EPAUS9r database (as well as the national version of the database, represented as a single region) are publicly available and have been used by a number of external users for analysis (see Lenox et al (2013) for database documentation). Akhtar et al (2013), Brown et al (2013), and Yeh et al (2008) provide examples of analyses using the EPAUS9r database (as well as modified versions) and additional details regarding the database structure. Sarica and Tyner (2013) use a modified EPA MARKAL national database and incorporate land use from the GTAP model so that land rent becomes part of the cost of producing biomass.…”

Off track to 2050?: a study of present and future interurban transportation emissions in British Columbia, Canada, relative to its Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act of 2007

“…Since annual mileage and and average trip length were among the main factors in my passenger vehicle and trucking calculations, this study' s relevance was to emphasize the possible uncertainties associated with this approach. Yeh et al (2008) studied US national road transportation emissions by modelling vehicle fuel use and corresponding emissions using the U.S. EPA ' s national MARK.et ALiocation (MARK.AL) model technology database. The authors state that strict and systemwide CO 2 reduction targets will be required to achieve significant emission reductions from the transportation sector and suggest that policies should be informed by the transitional nature of technology adoptions and interaction between mitigation strategies.…”