Our common future? Cross-scalar scenario analysis for social–ecological sustainability of the Guiana Shield, South America

Abstract

AcknowledgementsWe would like to thank all the participants of the North Rupununi and Guyana scenario workshops and Dominique Laffly for his advice in carrying out statistical analysis. Thank you to the anonymous reviewers for their comments. This research has been funded by the Environment Programme, Management of Natural Resources, DG Research and Innovation, European Commission 7 th Framework. 2 AbstractScenarios help build a shared understanding of potential futures and allow us to engage with how interventions or activities may impact on people and the environment. There are many scenario sets that have been developed at the global and regional level, but to a lesser extent at the national and local levels. Yet fewer studies have explicitly linked imagined futures at different socialecological scales. In this paper, we discuss how scenario analysis was used with indigenous communities and national level stakeholders in Guyana, South America, to explore context specific futures in relation to linked socialecological systems. These futures were then analysed against published regional (Amazonian) and international scenarios using a qualitative coding approach and supported by quantitative factorial analysis. This allowed us to develop a matrix of multi-scalar scenarios, showing how scenarios at all scales interact. From this, we were able to identify virtuous and vicious cycles amongst the different scales where developments produced feedbacks to make situations worse, better or counteract change at other levels. Our results show that there is considerable mismatch between the different scales of analysis, with the national scale playing a key role as mediator. In addition, we highlight the importance of focusing on the root causes shaping futures as well as participatory forms of scenario development in order to provide better policy and decision support, and stimulate engagement at all levels of organisation in the process of change.

Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America

“…These themes are broadly consistent with those found from the local level of the scenario analysis conducted by Mistry et al (2014) in Guyana. However, in the case studies presented here, the diversity of socio-ecological contexts also identified important context-specific responses.…”

“…The opportunity for iterative refinement of response options based on the local context was considered by participants to be particularly effective in translating the results into implementation actions, supporting the findings of Mistry et al (2014) that scenarios at a local level can become more action-focussed than at higher levels of scale. Iteration was believed to improve communication channels between the community, external stakeholders and scientists, gradually bringing together disparate perspectives.…”

“…This would challenge a simple linear stepwise interpretation of learning cycles and also appears more consistent with the conceptual framework of 'adaptation action cycles' which highlight oscillation between incremental and transformative modes of action, with each mode differing in terms of their information needs and requirements for policy support . In this context, policy support for adaptive governance may be required to improve cross-scale linkages to higher levels of decision making and external stakeholders (Olsson et al, 2004;Mistry et al, 2014). The case studies also suggest a smooth transition from coping towards adaptation is complicated by the association of social learning with place and identity which can encourage elements of both incremental and transformational processes depending on the local context .…”

“…Using multiple scenarios can help define the diversity of possible future changes, especially associated with key macro-scale drivers, thereby challenging existing mental models of change (Börjeson et al, 2006). Participatory scenarios are commonly developed with expert groups but their use in a community setting offers potential to combine scientific knowledge with local knowledge, including potential access to social or cultural memory (Bohunovsky et al, 2011;Mistry et al, 2014 (Börjesen et al, 2006;Robinson et al, 2011). The intention in the case studies was to develop community-based exploratory scenarios to learn more about anticipating and managing the future from different perspectives.…”

Learning from one another: evaluating the impact of horizontal knowledge exchange for environmental management and governance

“…Guiana Shield, South America, and for determining the most effective and efficient use of emerging funding streams in order to promote social justice and ecological sustainability. We worked in four stages: Stage 1: Developing a shared cross-scalar and interdisciplinary understanding of the factors that may influence community social-ecological survival (see Berardi et al 2012Berardi et al , 2013aBerardi et al , b, 2015; Stage 2: Exploring future scenarios affecting social-ecological resilience across local, national, and international scales (see Mistry et al 2013aMistry et al , 2014a; Stage 3: Identifying practices for operationalizing ideal cross-scalar models for social-ecological survival, namely by identifying community survival strategies "best practices" (see Mistry et al 2013bMistry et al , 2016; and Stage 4: Building wider capacity and sharing, and applying "community survival strategies" best practice in other communities and civil society organizations (CSOs) (see Tschirhart et al 2014). …”