Background
Exacerbations of asthma remain common even in children and adolescents despite optimal medical management. Identification of host risk factors for exacerbations is incomplete, particularly for seasonal episodes.
Objective
Define host risk factors for asthma exacerbations unique to their season of occurrence.
Methods
This is a retrospective analysis of patients aged 6-20 years who comprised the control groups of the Asthma Control Evaluation trial and the Inner City Anti-IgE Therapy for Asthma trial. Univariate and multivariate models were constructed to determine if patient demographic and historical factors, allergic sensitization, fractional exhaled nitric oxide, spirometric measurements, asthma control, and treatment requirements were associated with seasonal exacerbations.
Results
The analysis included 400 patients (54.5% male; 59.0% African American; median age 13 years). Exacerbations occurred in 37.5% of participants over the periods of observation and were most common in the fall (28.8% of participants). In univariate analysis, impaired pulmonary function was significantly associated with greater odds of exacerbations for all seasons, as was an exacerbation in the previous season for all seasons except spring. In multivariate analysis, exacerbation in the previous season was the strongest predictor in fall and winter while a higher requirement for inhaled corticosteroids was the strongest predictor in spring and summer. The multivariate models had the best predictive power for fall exacerbations (30.5% variance attributed).
Conclusions
Among a large cohort of inner city children with asthma, patient risk factors for exacerbations vary by season. Thus, individual patient information may be beneficial in strategies to prevent these seasonal events.
Clinical Implications
Inner city children remain at risk for asthma exacerbations despite appropriate therapy. Because their risk factors vary by season, strategies to prevent them may need to differ as well.
Capsule summary
Risk factors for asthma exacerbations among inner city children varied by season. Fall exacerbations were the most common and the most predictable based on a compilation of historical and clinical variables.