Our previous studies showed activation of
coagulation in the early hours of the clinical manifestation of
paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). Plasma coagulation activity
of factor II, factor V, factor VII, factor VIII, factor IX, factor X,
factor XI, factor XII, vWF, tissue factor levels, FVIII, vWF,
prothrombin fragment 1+2(F1 + 2) and fibrinopeptide A (FPA)
were significantly increased as early as the first twenty-four hours
of the disease. The results suggest that there is a correlation
between the studied parameters and development of the disease.
Aim: To search for a statistical model that predicts coagulation
activity in PAF patients. Materials and methods: Coagulation
parameters were examined in 51 PAF patients (26 males, 25
females; mean age 59.84 ±1.60 years, onset of PAF episode < 24h
prior to hospitalization). Controls included 52 individuals (26
males, 26 females; mean age 59.50 ± 1.46 years) with no prior
anamnestic or ECG AF data, corresponding to patients in sex,
age, BMI and comorbidities. A linear regression model was used
to predict coagulation activity in PAF. Regression models showed
good correlation between the duration of arrhythmia and six of
the fourteen coagulation parameters studied: F1+2 (r = 0.83, p
<0.001), FPA (r = 0.84, p <0.001), FVIII levels (r = 0.85, p <0.001)
as well as activity of FII (r = 0.83, p <0.001), FVIII (r = 0.83, p
<0.001) and FXII (r = 0.78, p <0.001). Changes in F1+2 plasma
levels were most sensitive to PAF duration, where the contribution
of duration to the values of the indicator is the greatest (b = 15.31).
Conclusion: Linear regression analysis allowed us to create
models with a high correlation coefficient for predicting the
values of F1+2, FPA, FVIII levels, as well as activity of FII, FVIII
and FXII in PAF patients. These models could allow for
quantification of the procoagulatory process and thrombotic
potential of the disease.