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Original ArticleDebates over the decline of marriage revolve around the poles of structure and culture. The structure side sees marriage decline as a function of a combination of increased opportunity for some women (making marriage less necessary) and a lack of "marriageable" men for others (making marriage less available). The culture side focuses on some combination of individualism, feminism, and welfare dependency, any of which may be seen as weakening the will to marry. As the decline in marriage has been much steeper for less advantaged women (Lundberg, Pollak, and Stearns 2016), the emphasis has turned to these women rather than those for whom marriage is less imperative. The related policy debate has revolved around poverty and welfare programs, and the marriage gap between Blacks and Whites-especially parents-has been especially salient, with conservative culture warriors advocating for marriage promotion programs and structure proponents targeting mass incarceration, job opportunities, racial segregation, and discrimination.In this paper, we assess the local marriage market characteristics that Black and White women encounter, specifically, the quantity and (economic) quality of potential male marriage partners, along with women's individual characteristics, and the extent to which these variables predict marriage. To do this, we offer a new analysis of data from the American Community Survey (ACS), which has several unique properties that contribute new information to this set of questions. We examine the local availability of single men and the characteristics of those men as potential determinants of marriage for Black and White women using marital events data from the ACS. We have two goals that are essentially descriptive. First, we develop a multilevel model of marriage market conditions and women's individual characteristics to help explain women's odds of marrying. This is relevant because to the extent that marriage market factors influence the odds of marriage so that there is a relative shortage of men-or men with greater resources-then welfare state policies intended to increase marriage among poor women will be swimming against the tide. The continued political salience of marriage-and its decline, especially among African Americans and people with low incomes-underscores the need for ongoing analysis of this question. Second, we assess the extent to which Black-White differences in marriage market conditions affect race difference in marriage rates.
AbstractUsing the marital events data from the American Community Survey for the first time, we exam...