Past and future water conflicts in the Upper Klamath Basin: An economic appraisal

Abstract

[1] The water conflict in the Upper Klamath Basin typifies the growing competition between agricultural and environmental water uses. In 2001, drought conditions triggered Endangered Species Act-related requirements that curtailed irrigation diversions to the Klamath Reclamation Project, costing irrigators tens of millions of dollars. Although this event has significantly elevated the perceived risk of future economic catastrophe in the basin (and therefore the level of conflict among water users), several key changes related to water availability have occurred since 2001. These changes include reduced ESA requirements and increased groundwater pumping capacity, which have lowered the actual risk and severity of future water shortages. In this paper, we use a mathematical programming model to evaluate how these changes alter the likelihood and economic consequences of future shortages. We also consider the effect of more flexible transfers among irrigators via water markets. Our analysis indicates that future drought conditions like those seen in 2001 would have more modest economic impacts than in 2001 and that when combined with contingent groundwater supplementation and water transfer mechanisms such as water markets, both the likelihood and magnitude of economic losses among irrigators would be greatly reduced.

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the United States

“…This finding aligns with prior research showing that drought has been an important driver of historical reductions in economic activity in these sectors (Howitt et al 2014;NCDC 2013;Boehlert and Jaeger 2010;NWS 2002). The spatial pattern of drought projections shows increases in occurrence in the western United States and decreases in the east under the IGSM-CAM pattern, matching results in prior research (e.g., Strzepek et al 2010).…”

“…Statewide costs to agriculture of the 2014 California drought have been estimated at $2.2 billion (U.S. dollars), with a loss of 17 000 seasonal and parttime jobs (Howitt et al 2014). In the Colorado River basin, the longest drought in 100 years had left Lakes Mead and Powell at just over half their capacities as of 2007; and in the Klamath River basin on the OregonCalifornia border, a severe drought combined with environmental flow requirements caused a 96% reduction in total net agricultural revenues in 2001 (Boehlert and Jaeger 2010). The recent widespread drought in the Mississippi River system caused $30 billion in impacts (NCDC 2013), including slowed barge traffic (Bjerga 2012) and crop and livestock losses that resulted in $16 billion in crop insurance claims in 2012 (Washington Post, 22 March 2013).…”

Toward a formal definition of water scarcity in natural‐human systems

“…A severe drought in 2001 resulted in extreme water scarcity costing irrigators millions of dollars. However, an analysis of the 2001 drought conditions indicates that these losses were primarily due to the lack of adjudicated water rights among irrigators, rather than ESArelated restrictions on water diversions [Boehlert and Jaeger, 2010]. Had water rights been fully adjudicated, water trading under Oregon law could have reduced the losses to irrigators of the ESA requirements by an estimated 57% ($10 million), without reducing the allocation of water to protect fish habitat.…”

“…For example, in the Upper Klamath River Basin in Oregon and California, USA, water is allocated among multiple uses including agriculture and fish habitat. A recent study estimated the marginal value of an acre-foot of water for farmers, when ESA-imposed streamflows and lake levels were maintained, varied from $1 in September to $48 in June in an average year; and under drought conditions the June value went as high as $274/acre-foot [Boehlert and Jaeger, 2010].…”

Assessing Spatial Variation of Corn Response to Irrigation Using a Bayesian Semiparametric Model

“…Economic and regulatory forces have prevailed and in some cases nearly eliminated nearby irrigated agriculture (Boehlert and Jaeger, 2010). In many locations previously unaffected by water contention, litigation has been used to alter water use or at least put added pressure on the economic value of water to the point that water rights have been transferred from agriculture, usually to municipalities (Brown, 2003).…”