Patates Üretiminde Üretim-Fiyat İlişkisinin Koyck Yaklaşımı ile Analitik Olarak Değerlendirilmesi (TR 71 Bölgesi Örneği)

Abstract

In this study, the interaction between potato production and its price from 1991 to 2012 was analyzed using Koyck approach, one of the distributed lag econometric models. The amount of potato production can increase or decrease in the current year based on the prices of previous year, as a product that is appropriate for cobweb theorem, one of economic facts. According to the results of Koyck model, it was determined that potato was affected by the prices of maximum two years retrospectively, and that 1.45 years were needed so that the change in potato prices could have a significant and considerable effect on potato production. On the other hand, while a TL 1 increase in potato prices in the current year increased potato production 711151.80 tons, a TL 1 increase in the prices of previous year increased the production 421001.86 tons and a TL 1 increase in potato prices two years previously caused 249233.10 tons increase in production. In conclusion, the following issues can be considered as measures to be taken economically: creating producer-consumer chain by setting up effective marketing organizations and therefore avoiding problems such as surplus supply or surplus demand, creating both more efficient and better quality production structure by planning the production, and providing stable production and stable price policies by establishing supply and demand balance.

Analysis of the Relationship between Almond Production and Almond Price with the Koyck Model

“…The lag length was found to be 9 years in the study conducted by Çelik (2015) and 4 years in the study conducted by Çobanoğlu (2010). Similarly, in a study conducted by Ağazade (2021), the lag length was found to be 2 years, while in the study conducted by Doğan et al (2014), it was also found to be 2 years. Similarly, in the studies conducted by Mbise (2016) and Turğut et al (2023), the lag length was found to be 2 years.…”

“…When the relevant literature is examined, it is seen that there is very limited research using the Koyck model to determine the relationship between agricultural product prices and the production of agricultural products in Türkiye. Ağazade (2021) investigated the relationship between cotton production and cotton prices, Avcioğlu and Aksoy (2021) examined the relationship between pistachio production and pistachio prices, Berk (2017) studied the relationship between sunflower production and sunflower prices, Çelik (2014) explored the relationship between hazelnut shelled production and hazelnut shelled prices, Çelik (2015) analyzed the relationship between sheep milk production and sheep milk prices, Çobanoğlu (2010) examined the relationship between strawberry production and strawberry prices, Dikmen (2006) investigated the relationship between tobacco production and tobacco prices, Erdal and Erdal (2008) studied the relationship between dry onion production and dry onion prices, Özçelik and Özer (2006) explored the relationship between wheat production and wheat prices, Özsayın (2017) analyzed the relationship between cow milk production and cow milk prices, Doğan et al (2014) examined the relationship between potato production and potato prices, Abdikoğlu and Unakıtan (2014) investigated the relationship between watermelon production and watermelon prices and Arısoy and Bayramoğlu (2017) attempted to determine the relationship between potato production and potato prices using the Koyck model.…”

Analysis of cotton production and price relationship by Koyck model: a case study for Azerbaijan

“…The Koyck model was developed to predict distributed lag models in order to eliminate the problems of multicollinearity and decreasing degrees of freedom depending on the lag length (Koyck, 1954). As a matter of fact, in many studies conducted in different countries, it is seen that the Koyck model is used in the analysis of the relationship between the production quantity and price of different crops (Yurdakul, 1998;Dikmen 2006;Erdal, 2006;Erdal & Erdal, 2008;Çetinkaya, 2012;Çelik, 2014;De Silva et al, 2014;Doğan et al, 2014;Hasan & Khalequzzaman, 2015;Mbise, 2016;Akgül & Yıldız, 2016;Al-Shamary & Mikhlef, 2017;Berk, 2017;Hasan et al, 2017;Ağazade, 2021;Avcıoğlu & Aksoy, 2021;Faied & Elshater, 2022;Turğut et al, 2023).…”