Abstract-This paper presents an original methodology to compute a financial product that could enhance the demand side participation in ancillary services, specially for industrial consumers. The financial product consists in an american option on the Spanish secondary reserve market for the following day, where the buyer has the right but not the obligation to offer part of its capacity to the system operator. Considering this approach, an industrial consumer would receive an economic incentive to offer its flexibility to the system without changing its production planning, paying an upfront premium. The computation of the american option is leveraged on a Monte Carlo simulation approach where the random paths are obtained from a machine learning model. The machine learning model attempts to forecast the 24-hour secondary band prices of the following day using a combination of different algorithms; the output of the model is used as a baseline to perform the Monte Carlo simulation that computes the option value.
LIST OF SYMBOLSt, τ time -hour of the day d day T tenor of the american option, i.e. 24 hours i index of the random path I total number of random paths g index of basis function G total number of basis functions β r coefficient vector of ridge regression γ shrinkage parameter of ridge penalty K strike -electricity valuation α g,t coefficient of basis function g at hour t S t secondary band price prediction at hour t S t secondary band price at hour t Y t error term at hour t X t feature vector at hour t Z t logarithm of the error term at hour t W t input feature vector of the second layer at hour t V t option value at hour t V t,i option value at hour t for random path i V t+∆t,i simulated continuation value at hour t for random path i h t payoff of the option at hour t S t,i secondary band price at hour t for random path i C t continuation value at hour t C t,i estimation of the continuation value at hour t for random path i