Peramalan Permintaan Toza Juice Strawberry Sebagai Dasar Penentuan Kebutuhan Persediaan Bahan Baku

Abstract

Fruit juice is one of the favorite soft drink products in Indonesia. PT. Amanah Prima Indonesia is an agroindustry company that produces the fruit juice RTD for the HORECA market. In the company's activities, the company will not be separated from a plan. One of the planning activities is forecast demand. The results of product demand forecast can assist in the decisions making to determine the amount of raw material inventory needs. The purpose of the research are: 1) to find out the forecast method used by the company, 2) to analyze the best demand forecast method, and 3) to analyze the optimal amount of the raw material inventory requirements based on the best forecast method results. This research used product sales data in the period of May 2016-April 2018. Demand forecast analysis used the ARIMA method and Exponential Smoothing method. Then inventory analysis used the Min-max Stock method. The result of this research shows that the forecasting system used by the company is currently unrealistic because it has big significant of difference with the actual data. The best time series model of forecast analysis acquires ARIMA model with value of MSE was smaller than DES (Holt) model. Analysis of the raw material inventory requirements with Min-Max Stock results obtain supplies the raw material of strawberry puree is 1688 kilograms, with safety stock of 106 kilograms puree, minimum stock of 830 kilograms puree, maximum stock of 1447 kilograms puree, and reorder point for the next purchase of strawberry as much as 562 kilograms.

Penerapan Analisis Runtun Waktu pada Peramalan Penjualan Produk Organik menggunakan Metode Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing

“…Pada perhitungan peramalan tidak semua metode dapat digunakan karena harus disesuaikan dengan kasus yang dialamai. Residual atau disebut error adalah perbedaan antara hasil dari perhitungan peramalan dan nilai aktual pada periode n, residual merupakan dasar dari mayoritas pengujian metode peramalan (Mulyati et al, 2019), dapat dirumuskan sebagai berikut: dimana e t adalah residual atau error, y adalah nilai data actual, dan ¡ t adalah nilai hasil peramalan.…”

“…(5) Analisis dilakukan menggunakan aplikasi Microsoft Excel menggunakan metode simple moving average dan single exponential smoothing, lalu pengukuran akurasi hasil peramalan dilakukan menggunakan metode mean absolut deviation (MAD), mean square error (MSE), dan standar deviasi. (Mulyati et al, 2019). Selain itu pada penelitian Maricar (2019), yang meneliti perbandingan akurasi pada metode exponential smoothing dan moving average pada perusahaan XYZ menghasilkan peramalan terbaik pada á = 0,1 (Maricar, 2019).…”

Prediction Of Tiger Shrimp Supply Using Time Series Anlysis Method Case Study CV.Surya Perdana Benur

“…With four steps, the first tentative model parameters are identified through the ACF and PACF graphs then the coefficients are determined and find out the possible models, the next step is to validate the model and finally use simple statistics and confidence intervals to determine the validity of the forecast and the performance of the trajectory model. ARIMA model is chosen when data differentiation process is needed (Mulyati, Fadilah, and Saleh 2019). ARIMA model is denoted as ARIMA (p, d, q).…”

Amount of Poverty as Policy Basis: A Forecasting Using The Holt Method

“…The Holt method is a method that uses annual time series data, on this model is usually used on data with linear trends that are not affected by the seasons (Mulyati, Fadilah, & Saleh, 2019). In smoothing with accurate values and parameters that differ from the actual data.…”