Perceptions of earthquake early warnings on the U.S. West Coast

Dunn, Peter T.; Ahn, Alicia Y.E.; Bostrom, Ann; Vidale, John E.

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.10.019

Cited by 47 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Earthquake experience has been linked to increased risk perception for future earthquakes and greater preparation for them [46]. But having previously experienced a hurricane has been linked to lower levels of concern about future hurricanes and less preparedness [47].…”

Section: Prior Storm Experiencementioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010), Irene (2011), Isaac (2012), and Sandy (2012 to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents' ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1) temporal and spatial myopia, (2) poor mental models of storm risk, (3) gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4) prior storm experience, and (5) social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in) and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.

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Section: Prior Storm Experiencementioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

et al. 2018

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“…The time available between when a warning is received and strong shaking arrives can provide a crucial opportunity to mitigate damage from earthquakes by undertaking both automated and procedural actions. People can quickly take personal protective action (e.g., “drop, cover, and hold on”) and organizations can stop dangerous operations (e.g., controlling factory lines, hospital functions, elevators, and commuter trains) before the arrival of strong shaking (Dunn, Ahn, Bostrom, & Vidale, ; Horiuchi, ; Yamasaki, ). Regarding its effectiveness for operations, for example, the East Japan Railway utilizes EEWs to slow down and stop trains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Residents’ Reactions to Earthquake Early Warnings in Japan

et al. 2019

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This article empirically examines the effectiveness of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Japan based on experiences of residents who received warnings before earthquake shaking occurred. In Study 1, a survey (N = 299) was conducted to investigate residents’ experiences of, and reactions to, an EEW issued in Gunma and neighboring regions on June 17, 2018. The main results were as follows. (1) People's primary reactions to the EEW were mental, not physical, and thus motionless. Most residents stayed still, not for safety reasons, but because they were focusing on mentally bracing themselves. (2) Residents perceived the EEW to be effective because it enabled them to mentally prepare, rather than take physical protective actions, before strong shaking arrived. (3) In future, residents anticipate that on receipt of an EEW they would undertake mental preparation as opposed to physical protective actions. In Study 2, a survey (N = 450) was conducted on another EEW issued for an earthquake offshore of Chiba Prefecture on July 7, 2018. Results were in line with those of Study 1, suggesting that the findings described above are robust. Finally, given people's lack of impetus to undertake protective action on receipt of an EEW, this article discusses ways to enhance such actions.

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“…Many social science studies also follow the media's lead and assume ''EEW can give a few sec to minutes'' (Dunn et al, 2016) or ''10-60 s'' warning (Wood, 2018) as the initial conditions for their analyses, rather than the much more likely 0-10 s for damaging or injurious shaking levels (e.g. Minson et al, 2018).…”

Section: 19mentioning

confidence: 99%

Practical limitations of earthquake early warning

Wald

2020

Earthquake Spectra

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Earthquake early warning (EEW) entails detection of initial earthquake shaking and rapid estimation and notification to users prior to imminent, stronger shaking. EEW (ShakeAlert Phase 1, version 2.0) went operational in California in October 2019 and is coming to the rest of the U.S. West Coast. But what are the technical and social challenges to delivering actionable information on earthquake shaking before it arrives? Although there will be tangible benefits, there are also limitations. Basic seismological principles, alert communication challenges, and potential response actions, as well as substantial lessons learned from the use of EEW in Japan, point to more limited opportunities to warn and protect than perhaps many expect. This is in part because potential warning times vary by region and are influenced by tectonic environment, hypocentral depth, and the fault’s proximity to the alert user. For the U.S. West Coast, particularly for crustal earthquakes, warning times are shorter—and possible mitigation actions are likely to be less effective—than often maintained. Nevertheless, EEW is an additional arrow in the quiver of earthquake information tools available in the service of earthquake risk reduction. What is called for, then, is transparency and balance in the EEW discussion: along with its potential, the acknowledgment of EEW’s inherent and practical limitations is needed. Recognizing these limitations could, in fact, make EEW implementation more successful as part of a holistic earthquake mitigation strategy, where its role among other earthquake information tools is quite natural.

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Perceptions of earthquake early warnings on the U.S. West Coast

Cited by 47 publications

References 45 publications

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Residents’ Reactions to Earthquake Early Warnings in Japan

Practical limitations of earthquake early warning

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