Performance of Intra‐COMESA Trade Integration: A Comparative Study with ASEAN's Trade Integration

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the performance of intra-COMESA trade integration on the basis of success of ASEAN integration, using an out-of-sample approach. The analysis employed a gravity approach to estimate the coefficients of the ASEAN model which are used as a benchmark to project the potential trade for eight COMESA members. The success of COMESA is estimated by the ratio of potential to actual trade. The results pointed out that all countries of the selected sample are far from their potential trade level, implying unfavorable performance of the regional trade integration among COMESA members. The results also indicate that the gap between potential and actual trade has decreased in the last decade, suggesting a convergence toward the potential trade level over time. Finally, the paper ends with some policy recommendations regarding promoting regional cooperation among COMESA members.

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