Perspectives on prediction: Does third-person imagery improve task completion estimates?

Buehler, Roger; Griffin, Dale W.; Lam, Kent C. H.; Deslauriers, Jennifer

doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.09.001

Cited by 25 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…While potentially leading emotional predictions astray (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003), there are nevertheless occasions on which adoption of a third-person vantage point is the optimal way to preview the future (Buehler, Griffin, Lam, & Deslauriers, 2012;Libby & Eibach, 2011). For example, a lack of experiential detail is beneficial when unpleasant or undesirable events are the to-be-imagined episodes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Turning I into me: Imagining your future self

Macrae

Mitchell

Tait

et al. 2015

Consciousness and Cognition

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A widely endorsed belief is that perceivers imagine their present selves using a different representational format than imagining their future selves (i.e., near future=first-person; distant future=third-person). But is this really the case? Responding to the paucity of work on this topic, here we considered how temporal distance influences the extent to which individuals direct their attention outward or inward during a brief imaginary episode. Using a non-verbal measure of visual perspective taking (i.e., letter-drawing task) our results confirmed the hypothesized relation between temporal distance and conceptions of the self. Whereas simulations of an event in the near future were dominated by a first-person representation of the self, this switched to a third-person depiction when the event was located in the distant future. Critically, this switch in vantage point was restricted to self-related simulations. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Turning I into me: Imagining your future self

Macrae

Mitchell

Tait

et al. 2015

Consciousness and Cognition

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“…Besides temporal distance, other researchers have tested the effects of social distance on prediction. Buehler, Griffin, Lam, and Deslauriers (2012) found that high-level construals accompanied by greater social distance reduced people's focus on optimistic plans, and increased their awareness of potential obstacles. People also tended to make more rational decisions when they were at a greater social distance compared with when they were at a nearer social distance, so high construal combined with greater social distance could result in more rational decisions (Danziger, Montal, & Barkan, 2012).…”

Section: Construal Level Psychological Distance and Overoptimistic mentioning

confidence: 97%

High Construal Level Reduces Overoptimistic Performance Prediction

Yan¹,

Hou²,

Unger³

2014

soc behav pers

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Overoptimistic performance prediction is a very common feature of people's goal-directed behavior. In this study we examined overoptimistic prediction as a function of construal level. In construal level theory an explanation is set out with regard to how people make predictions through the abstract connections between past and future events, with high-level construal bridging near and distant events. We conducted 2 experiments to confirm our hypothesis that, compared with people with local, concrete construals, people with global, abstract construals would make predictions that were less overoptimistic. In Study 1 we manipulated construal level by priming mindset, and participants (n = 81) predicted the level of their productivity in an anagram task. The results supported our hypothesis. In Study 2, in order to improve the generalizability of the conclusion, we varied the manipulation of the construal level by priming a scenario, and measured performance prediction by having the participants (n = 119) estimate task duration. The results showed that high-level construal consistently decreased overoptimistic prediction, supporting our hypothesis. The theoretical implications of our findings are discussed.

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“…Whereas previous research into the planning fallacy focused on a single mechanism at a time (e.g. Buehler et al , ; Flyvbjerg, ; Buehler et al , ), employing a multi‐mechanism approach enabled showing that different outside‐view mechanisms have bias‐mitigating effects that accumulate one on top of the other, with little overlap. This finding suggests that the identification of additional mechanisms that facilitate an outside view is likely to further improve decision making in planning for software development.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Buehler et al (1994) demonstrated the differences between actors and observers in making time estimations. They and others (Buehler et al, 1995(Buehler et al, , 2010a(Buehler et al, , 2012 found that observers are less prone than the actors themselves to produce time underestimations for tasks performed by the actors. Buehler et al (1994Buehler et al ( , 2010a attribute these differences to different motivations, with observers generally less attentive than actors to the plans of the actors and more attentive to potential obstacles and to the actors' past experiences and previous performance.…”

Section: Role Perspectivementioning

confidence: 95%

Can the outside‐view approach improve planning decisions in software development projects?

Shmueli

Pliskin

Fink

2015

Information Systems Journal

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This study empirically tackles the question of whether taking an outside‐view approach, recommended for reducing the irrational behaviours associated with the planning fallacy, can also reduce the time underestimation, scope overload and over‐requirement problems plaguing planning decisions in software development. Drawing on descriptive behavioural decision theory, this study examines whether the planning fallacy, a cognitive bias referring to the tendency of people to underestimate costs and overestimate benefits in evaluating a task to be performed, can provide a theoretical platform for mitigating irrational behaviours in the planning of software development projects. In particular, we argue that taking an outside‐view approach in planning decisions for software development may have the same mitigating effects on time underestimation, scope overload and over‐requirement it has been shown to have on cost underestimation and benefit overestimation. In an experiment investigating this argument, participants were randomly assigned to four groups by manipulating two outside‐view mechanisms: reference information about past completion times (present/absent) and role perspective (developer/consultant). After being presented with a to‐be‐developed software project, they were requested to estimate development times of various software features and to recommend which features to include within project scope given a fixed duration for the entire project. The results confirm that the three problems of time underestimation, scope overload and over‐requirement are manifested in planning decisions for fixed‐schedule software development projects. Moreover, the results show that these problems are mitigated, yet not eliminated, by presenting reference information about past completion times and by having a consultant role.

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Perspectives on prediction: Does third-person imagery improve task completion estimates?

Cited by 25 publications

References 42 publications

Turning I into me: Imagining your future self

Turning I into me: Imagining your future self

High Construal Level Reduces Overoptimistic Performance Prediction

Can the outside‐view approach improve planning decisions in software development projects?

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