Playing both sides: Belarus between Russia and the EU

Russia’s game in Belarus: 2020 presidential elections as a checkmate for Lukashenka?

“…During Boris Yeltsin’s presidency, Russia tried to foster a “collective we” and develop cooperation with the post-Soviet states using an affinity-based approach (Viera and Vasiliyan, 2018). As soon as Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999, he put Russia’s relations with its close neighborhood, primarily Belarus, on a commercial footing prioritizing Russia’s own interests (Nice, 2012: 6). Thus, the manner of relations changed to a quid pro quo policy (Meister, 2010: 2; Nice, 2012: 6).…”

“…As soon as Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999, he put Russia’s relations with its close neighborhood, primarily Belarus, on a commercial footing prioritizing Russia’s own interests (Nice, 2012: 6). Thus, the manner of relations changed to a quid pro quo policy (Meister, 2010: 2; Nice, 2012: 6). According to this approach, Russian economic and political support was provided to Belarus in exchange for participation in integration initiatives 1 as well as geopolitical loyalty.…”

“…Belarus’s policy toward Russia during this period can be termed as “sovereignty entrepreneurship”—receiving economic benefits in the form of energy subsidies and credits in return for either political loyalty to Russia or through a threat to change its pro-Russian foreign policy stance (Nice, 2012: 7). Although in its official discourse the Belarusian regime claimed to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy, in reality, during this phase, it had very dense cooperation with Russia.…”