Political Regime and Public Social Spending in Spain: A Time Series Analysis (1850-2000)

Abstract

Over the past century and a half, Spain has had a tumultuous political history. What impact has this had on social policy? Democracy has had a positive effect on both the levels of social spending and its long-term growth trend. With the arrival of democracy in 1931, the transition began from a traditional regime (with low levels of social spending) to a modern regime (with high levels of social spending). Franco's dictatorship, however, reversed this change in direction, retarding the positive growth in social spending. At the same time, the effect of left-wing parties was statistically significant only in the nineteen-thirties (prior to the Keynesian consensus) and in the period of the Bourbon Restoration (when the preferences of low-income groups were systematically ignored). JEL Codes: I30, H53, N30.Keywords: Welfare State, Dictatorship, Democracy, Redistribution, Spain, History of social policy ResumenEn el último siglo y medio, España ha tenido una convulsa historia política. ¿Cuál ha sido el impacto sobre la política social? La democracia tuvo un efecto positivo tanto sobre los niveles como sobre la tendencia a largo plazo del gasto social. Con la llegada de la democracia en 1931 se inició, de hecho, la transición de un régimen tradicional (con bajos niveles de gasto social) a un régimen moderno (con altos niveles de gasto social). La dictadura franquista, sin embargo, revirtió este cambio de tendencia, retrasando el crecimiento definitivo del gasto social en España. Al mismo tiempo, el efecto de los partidos de izquierdas solo fue estadísticamente significativo en los años 30 (antes del consenso keynesiano) y en el periodo de la Restauración (cuando las preferencias de los grupos de renta baja eran ignoradas sistemáticamente). Códigos JEL: I30, H53, N30Palabras clave: Estado del Bienestar, Dictadura, Democracia, Redistribución, España, Historia de la política social Polanyi (2001[1944]) described the social history of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries as the result of a double movement: an unprecedented growth of market mechanisms, in parallel to the development of "a network of measures and policies (…) designed to check the action of the market relative to labour, land, and money" (p. 79). This process, he added, "may happen in a great variety of ways, democratic and aristocratic, constitutionalist and authoritarian" (p. 259). Even today, however, there is no consensus on the impact of the political regime on the development of social policy. Initially, one would expect the expansion of suffrage and the advancement of democracy to have a positive effect (Lindert 2004, Haggard andKaufman 2008). However, there are also examples of social policy being developed under nondemocratic governments, such as that of Bismarck's Germany. Indeed, Mulligan et al. (2010) and Cutler and Johnson (2004) take the view that dictatorships also have incentives to increase social spending, whether for reasons of economic efficiency or to achieve political legitimacy. In Spain, the development of social policy t...

Children’s Diet during the Early Stages of the Nutritional Transition. The Foundlings in the Hospital of Valencia (Spain), 1852–1931

“…In the 19th and 20th centuries, Spanish liberal institutions financed social welfare services with difficulties [53] (p, 944) [54] (p. 366), and these were partially delegated to private initiatives. Historically, the finances of the Hospital General of Valencia were based on the fees paid by those who could afford them, donations and the rents derived from the agricultural land owned by the institution.…”

Territorial efficiency of social spending in Spain

“…As Alonso (2010) points out, the construction of the modern Spanish State is the result of three complex and practically simultaneous processes: democratisation, European integration and decentralisation. Espuelas (2017) finds a positive impact of democratic regimes on the long-term trend of social spending when analysing the Spanish case through econometric techniques, due to the alternation of systems (dictatorship and democracy) since the mid-19th century. According to this author, "Franco's dictatorship halted the modernization process (the transition from the traditional regime to the modern regime of social spending) that began with the arrival of democracy in 1931" (Espuelas, 2017, p. 381).…”

“…The decisions taken within the EU institutions conditioned not only a large number of administrative procedures and internal rules but also the entire economic policy, especially the monetary policy transferred to the European Central Bank (Alonso, 2010). At the same time, the Spanish social spending increased, although it has not reached the EU average yet (Espuelas, 2017).…”

MILITARY WAGES AND COUPS D’ÉTAT IN SPAIN (1850–1915): THE USE OF PUBLIC SPENDING AS A COUP-PROOFING STRATEGY

“…Cabinet reshuffles have been used by the previous literature as an indicator of political and regime instability (e.g. Espuelas 2017).…”

“…Civil wages are calculated as the average of the salaries received by judges in Madrid and the wages of the Spanish company La España Industrial S.A. We have expanded our series of military wages (based on several benchmark years) to the entire period 1850-1915 by using a cubic spline interpolation.30 Data fromUrquijo (2001). Cabinet reshuffles have been used by the previous literature as an indicator of political and regime instability (e.g Espuelas 2017…”