Political shifts and changing forests: Effects of armed conflict on forest conservation in Rwanda

Abstract

h i g h l i g h t s• Aspects of conflict can have very different impacts on forest cover. • Theoretical framework distinguishes armed conflict activity impacts from conflict settlements. • Forest transitions in NW Rwanda indicated more spatially concentrated loss during conflict. • 96% of forest loss during conflict across the landscape occurred in protected areas.• Results underscore heavy dependence on forest resources during conflicts. a b s t r a c tMost armed conflicts in recent history occurred in biodiversity hotspots. Yet, studies examining impacts of warfare on forests yield contradictory results. This study provides a theoretical framework articulating different hypothetical relationships between conflict and forest transitions. Landsat TM and ETM+ data were analyzed to examine forest transitions in Rwanda during conflict and post conflict periods. Net trends showed little difference between periods, with a rate of 1.6% annual gain during conflict years, and 2.5% following the conflict. Closer inspection revealed spatially concentrated forest loss during conflict years; 96% occurred in protected areas with the most loss in Gishwati Forest Reserve at a rate of −6.1%. Trends were explored with spatially explicit conflict data that distinguished armed conflict activity from conflict induced settlements. Impacts of conflict on forests in Rwanda appear to be influenced by natural resource use near settlements. Massive migrations of people into settlements during the conflict, who had previously been scattered across the landscape, resulted in a redistribution of pressures. Reduced pressure elsewhere supports this inference. Results underscore the vulnerability of protected areas and the spatial dynamics of forest resource dependence during conflicts. This work demonstrates the value of distinguishing conflict activities to assess their varied environmental effects.

Impacts on the Urban Environment: Land Cover Change Trajectories and Landscape Fragmentation in Post-War Western Area, Sierra Leone

“…The analysis of LCC trajectories and landscape fragmentation both at the class and landscape levels undertaken here has extended our understanding of LULCC in the WA [5, 7,9] and that of previous research on the impact of conflict on the environment [2,[11][12][13][14][15]. Our research provides the first detailed assessment of the extent and magnitude of landscape fragmentation and trajectory trends in the WA, findings that are useful to conservation planning and management efforts for WAPFoR.…”

Mapping Deforestation and Forest Degradation Patterns in Western Himalaya, Pakistan

“…Several reports relate this deforestation with nexus of timer mafia and combatant groups for financial gains and clearing by security forces for tactical reasons [58][59][60]. Deforestation along the western borders of Pakistan during last decade are similar to the deforestation patterns in Afghanistan during 1980-2000 and the spatially concentrated loss and heavy dependence on forest resources during the Rwandan conflicts [61,62]. The deforestation and degradation levels reported in this study need to be analyzed in terms of anthropogenic factors as reported in several other studies [55][56][57][58][59][60][61].…”

A 2018 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity

“…These political changes may have a greater effect on conservation than would many of the issues presented here. While specific geopolitical events can be unpredictable, we are aware that recent trends, including the rise in nationalism, military conflicts, terrorism, and the mass movements of political or economic migrants and refugees (e.g., [62]), can have considerable effects on biological diversity that we may fail to identify on an annual basis. At the same time, there are global desires and movements to improve living standards in low-income countries and to reduce the disparity between relatively high-income and low-income populations and nations.…”