Pots and Pox: The Identification of Protohistoric Epidemics in the Upper Mississippi Valley

Abstract

Exogenous diseases represent one of the principal agents of culture change associated with the historic period, yet the timing of their initial influence remains undocumented in many regions of North America. Settlement variables, cooking pot volume, and mortality profiles from Oneota tradition occupations are used to investigate the possible occurrence of epidemics in the Upper Mississippi River valley. Synchronous fluctuations in settlement and ceramic variables indicate that following at least two centuries of population growth a significant population decline occurred in the early seventeenth century. Several factors provide support for the role of disease in this decline, including its timing, magnitude, and the documented presence of epidemics in adjacent regions combined with substantial evidence for extensive contact with those areas. This event, prior to direct, sustained contact, is associated with the increased intensity of intergroup exchange occurring with the fur trade. The ability to identify the occurrence of such epidemics is essential for understanding protohistoric cultural dynamics as well as the transmission of disease on a continental level.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Old World Diseases in North America, A.D. 1519–1807

“…Second, the archaeological remains must show a drastic decline in population. Third, the period of decline must have been five years or less (Betts 2006;Campbell 1990;Ramenofsky 1987). Cases that met these criteria came from the Northeast (Jones 2010a, 2010b; Snow 1995a;Snow and Starna 1989;Warrick 2008), Southwest (Palkovich 1985(Palkovich , 1994, upper Midwest (Betts 2006), and Columbia River valley (Campbell 1990).…”

“…In the latter, the year comes from the date at which smaller settlements were established, marking a decrease in population from earlier, larger settlements, or at which severe disruptions occur in material culture or subsistence. This work is described in the original research (Betts 2006;Campbell 1990; Jones 2010a, 2010b; Snow 1995aSnow , 1995bWarrick 2008). Betts (2006) estimated a range of A.D. 1625-1650 for disease in the LaCrosse region based on radiocarbon dates and artifact stylistic changes.…”

“…This work is described in the original research (Betts 2006;Campbell 1990; Jones 2010a, 2010b; Snow 1995aSnow , 1995bWarrick 2008). Betts (2006) estimated a range of A.D. 1625-1650 for disease in the LaCrosse region based on radiocarbon dates and artifact stylistic changes. Brown and Sasso (2001:225) suggest a range from A.D. 1634 to 1670, so A.D. 1650 was used in this study.…”

“…There exists the potential to produce similar ically grounded research has begun (Ramenofsky results for Old World diseases in North America. et al 2003), this article concurrently and comple-Over the last 25 years, regionally focused hismentarily promotes the spatial analyses of Old torical and archaeological research has produced a significant amount of data on precolumbian Native American population sizes and the timing and severity of depopulation caused by Old World diseases (Betts 2006; Boyd 1992Boyd , 1994Hackett 2002; Hull 2009;Jones 2010aJones , 2010bKulisheck 2010;Palkovich 1985Palkovich , 1994Reff 1987Reff , 1991Snow 1995aSnow , 1995bThornton 1990;Warrick 2008). Using the results from these previous studies, this work explores the rate of Old World disease spread in North America during A.D. 1519-1807, with two goals in mind: (1) revealing whether diseases spread long distances in very short periods of time (i.e., as pandemics); and (2) describing and explaining the spatial patterns in depopulation caused by Old World diseases.…”

Recent Work and Prospects in American Indian Contact Population

“…Archeological evidence is notoriously elusive, but the preponderance for the Americas does suggest a marked decline in population from the early sixteenth century on, but this can tell us little about precise timing and nothing about magnitude, as a recent study of a site in northern Florida illustrates. 79 Florida was the focus of an entire book by Henry Dobyns, in which he projected a contact population of over 700,000, which was reduced within a few decades by the usual 90+ percent, as diseases promptly spread far and wide throughout the area. 80 A look at the evidence from Tatham Mound, an extensive site in west-central Florida, suggests quite a different scenario.…”