Power Cyber-Physical System Risk Area Prediction Using Dependent Markov Chain and Improved Grey Wolf Optimization

Qu, Zhaoyang; Xie, Qianhui; Liu, Yuqing; Li, Yang; Wang, Lei; Xu, Pengcheng; Zhou, Yuguang; Sun, Jian; Xue, Kaiping; Cui, Mingshi

doi:10.1109/access.2020.2991075

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…A reliability modelling of the smart grid is developed considering the cyber-physical interdependencies among the components and shown that the flawed cyberinfrastructure results in lower reliability of the smart grid compared to the conventional power grid with less advanced control [160]. In [284], based on the interdependence between the cyber and physical networks, a risk area prediction model for CPPS is developed using dependent markov chain. Then the cross-adaptive gray wolf optimization algorithm is utilized to optimize the prediction model to accurately reflect the actual system risk propagation process.…”

Section: (C) Cpps Interdependent Modelling (Degree Of Physical and Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cyber-Physical Power System (CPPS): A Review on Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis With Cyber Security Applications

Yohanandhan

Elavarasan²,

Premkumar³

et al. 2020

IEEE Access

232

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Cyber-Physical System (CPS) is a new kind of digital technology that increases its attention across academia, government, and industry sectors and covers a wide range of applications like agriculture, energy, medical, transportation, etc. The traditional power systems with physical equipment as a core element are more integrated with information and communication technology, which evolves into the Cyber-Physical Power System (CPPS). The CPPS consists of a physical system tightly integrated with cyber systems (control, computing, and communication functions) and allows the two-way flows of electricity and information for enabling smart grid technologies. Even though the digital technologies monitoring and controlling the electric power grid more efficiently and reliably, the power grid is vulnerable to cybersecurity risk and involves the complex interdependency between cyber and physical systems. Analyzing and resolving the problems in CPPS needs the modelling methods and systematic investigation of a complex interaction between cyber and physical systems. The conventional way of modelling, simulation, and analysis involves the separation of physical domain and cyber domain, which is not suitable for the modern CPPS. Therefore, an integrated framework needed to analyze the practical scenario of the unification of physical and cyber systems. A comprehensive review of different modelling, simulation, and analysis methods and different types of cyber-attacks, cybersecurity measures for modern CPPS is explored in this paper. A review of different types of cyber-attack detection and mitigation control schemes for the practical power system is presented in this paper. The status of the research in CPPS around the world and a new path for recommendations and research directions for the researchers working in the CPPS are finally presented.

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Section: (C) Cpps Interdependent Modelling (Degree Of Physical and Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cyber-Physical Power System (CPPS): A Review on Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis With Cyber Security Applications

Yohanandhan

Elavarasan²,

Premkumar³

et al. 2020

IEEE Access

232

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…(1) The sojourn time of performance state of each system function in SoS obeys exponential distribution. According to the above assumptions, the Markov [42] process of independent operational performance state (level) of function mk F of equipment system m S under the condition of gradual and abrupt failure is constructed as shown in Figure 4. Given the state transition intensity matrix of mk F , transformation theorem of Laplace-Stieltjes and equation (23), probability of mk F in each performance state at any time t can be obtained by solving the following differential equations of Kolmogorov [43]…”

Section: Independent Operational Performance Level Modeling Of Funmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importance Measure of Equipment Task Based on Operational Dependency of SoS

Chen

et al. 2021

IEEE Access

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In order to evaluate the mission success of system of systems (SoS) and to develop maintenance strategies to meet mission requirements of SoS, an importance measure method of equipment task based on operational dependency of SoS is proposed. The operational dependency network of SoS is constructed based on FDNA, and the nodes and dependency relationships in the network are determined. According to the Markov process, the reliability model of a system function is constructed, and the operability level and probability of each node in the network are obtained. Meanwhile, the algorithm of Birnbaum importance measure is introduced to effectively quantify the impact of operational dependency on the task importance of each equipment system in SoS. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of this method is verified by a case study.

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“…Ref. [12] [30] figured out that power systems have the Markovian property, so the decision can be made independently with only the current states. This is a tree-layout Markov decision process (MDP), as shown in Fig.…”

Section: B Formation Of Pattern/sequencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ref. [12] predicted risky areas in a heterogeneous CPPS under topological attacks. In both [13] and [14], the authors proposed a cyber-physical coordinated attack scheme, which trips a transmission line physically while falsifying measurements in the cyber layer, to mislead operators and thus cause load shedding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pattern Analysis of Topological Attacks in Cyber-Physical Power Systems Considering Cascading Outages

et al. 2020

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Modern cyber-physical power systems are vulnerable to cyber attacks. Given that cyber and physical networks are coupled tightly, attacks in the cyber layer can penetrate the physical layer, causing the outage of transmission lines and other physical equipment, thus changing the topology of the grid. In some extreme scenarios, the topological change will disrupt the emergency response of the grid, eventually causing cascading outages along with a blackout. Therefore, as the defender, the operator of a cyberphysical power system should identify critical cyber attacks. In this paper, patterns of sequential cyber topological attacks are analyzed. Firstly, a coordinated attack process is established, including mechanism and probability analysis considering the different timescales. Secondly, the concept of patterns is defined as minimal attack sequences aimed at causing blackouts. Furthermore, the representativeness of patterns is illustrated, which can significantly reduce the storage of risky attack sequences. Thirdly, to address the problem that the identification of patterns is computationally intensive, a search strategy that selects the next attack target dynamically and increases the search depth gradually is proposed to avoid unnecessary search trials. Lastly, tests are carried out on the IEEE 39-node system using the AC power flow model, which validates the representativeness of patterns and the performance of the proposed search strategy.

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Power Cyber-Physical System Risk Area Prediction Using Dependent Markov Chain and Improved Grey Wolf Optimization

Cited by 17 publications

References 21 publications

Cyber-Physical Power System (CPPS): A Review on Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis With Cyber Security Applications

Cyber-Physical Power System (CPPS): A Review on Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis With Cyber Security Applications

Importance Measure of Equipment Task Based on Operational Dependency of SoS

Pattern Analysis of Topological Attacks in Cyber-Physical Power Systems Considering Cascading Outages

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