Predictability of Extreme Precipitation in Western U.S. Watersheds Based on Atmospheric River Occurrence, Intensity, and Duration

Chen, Xiaodong; Leung, L. Ruby; Gao, Yang; Liu, Ying; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Richmond, Marshall C.

doi:10.1029/2018gl079831

Cited by 60 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The spatial pattern of R 2 resembles the spatial patterns of runoff change in Figure , with the lagged influence from ROS removed. The spatial pattern in Figure S11 also agrees with the finding of Chen et al () that precipitation (especially extreme precipitation events that have a significant contribution to annual runoff) is highly correlated with AR occurrences in the coastal watersheds of the western United States.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

“…The PRISM daily precipitation data are derived from gauge observation with topographic adjustment of the monthly mean precipitation based on statistical relationships. More evaluation of the simulated precipitation is also described in Chen et al (). The simulated snowpack is evaluated using snow water equivalent from the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations (Yan et al, ) during the water years of 2006–2013.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many of these extreme events are caused by or related to atmospheric rivers (ARs), which feature bands of high precipitable water in the atmosphere spanning thousands of kilometers long and are responsible for over 90% of poleward moisture transport (Newell et al, ; Zhu & Newell, ). For example, extreme precipitation in the western United States is found to be related to ARs (Chen et al, ; Lavers & Villarini, ; Marks et al, ; Ralph et al, ; Ralph & Dettinger, ; Rutz et al, ; White et al, ). Floods in different watersheds in California and Washington are also found to be associated with landfalling ARs, and the probability of extreme runoff in the western United States increases as the intensity of ARs increases (Konrad & Dettinger, ; Neiman et al, ; Ralph et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Surface Hydrological Processes in Western U.S. Watersheds

et al. 2019

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can significantly modulate surface hydrological processes through the extreme precipitation they produce. However, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation of ARs' impact on surface hydrology. This study uses a high‐resolution regional climate simulation to quantify the impact of ARs on surface hydrological processes across the western U.S. watersheds. The model performance is evaluated through extensive comparison against observations. Our analysis indicates that ARs produce heavy precipitation but suppress evapotranspiration. Snowpack ablates more during ARs, with higher air temperature and increased longwave radiation playing the primary and secondary roles, respectively. At the 0 °C to 10 °C temperature range, ARs increase the probability of snow ablation from 0.33 to 0.57. The runoff‐to‐precipitation ratio is primarily controlled by antecedent soil moisture, but it almost doubles in the northwestern watersheds due to the intensification of snow ablation during AR events. From the analysis of the relationship between the hydrological responses and different meteorological factors, precipitation, temperature, and radiation are identified as the key drivers that distinguish the hydrologic responses between AR and non‐AR events. Lastly, analysis of ARs and total runoff at annual scale and 1 April snowpack and winter precipitation shows that ARs explain 30% to 60% of the variability of annual total runoff and sharpen the seasonality of water resources availability in the west coast mountain watersheds.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Surface Hydrological Processes in Western U.S. Watersheds

et al. 2019

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“…To this end, we extend our analysis and include an investigation of historic and future AR intensity, which includes zonal IVT (or IVT in the x direction) and meridional IVT (or IVT in the y direction). This is important to show, since AR intensity is a key feature that can shape the impact of future ARs (Chen et al, ; Ralph & Dettinger, ; Rutz et al, ). Figures a, c, and e show historical zonally averaged AR dynamics (frequency and intensity) for the model averages used in this study.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Climate Model Ensemble Approaches for Future Projections of Atmospheric Rivers

Massoud

Espinoza

Guan³

et al. 2019

Earth's Future

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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow jets of integrated water vapor transport that are important for the global water cycle and also have large impacts on local weather and regional hydrology. Uniformly weighted multi‐model averages have been used to describe how ARs will change in the future, but this type of estimate does not consider skill or independence of the climate models of interest. Here, we utilize information from various model averaging approaches, such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA), to evaluate 21 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Model ensemble weighting strategies are based on model independence and AR performance skill relative to ERA‐Interim reanalysis data and result in higher accuracy for the historic period, for example, root mean square error for AR frequency (in % of time steps) of 0.69 for BMA versus 0.94 for the multi‐model ensemble mean. Model weighting strategies also result in lower uncertainties in the future estimates, for example, only 20–25% of the total uncertainties seen in the equal weighting strategy. These model averaging methods show, with high certainty, that globally the frequency of ARs is expected to have average relative increases of ~50% (and ~25% in AR intensity) by the end of the century.

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“…(2) Strong storms (Chen et al, ; Kim, Guan, et al, ; Lamjiri, Dettinger, Ralph, & Guan, ; Ralph & Dettinger, )…”

Section: Moisture Pathways Associated With Precipitation Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global atmospheric moisture transport associated with precipitation extremes: Mechanisms and climate change impacts

et al. 2020

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The atmospheric moisture transport processes are of great importance to the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes. In this paper, we review the linkage between processes, including the large‐scale atmospheric circulation, atmospheric moisture transport, and extreme precipitation events. We first summarize the thermodynamic and dynamic processes and moisture transport trackings for historical precipitation extremes. We then focus on the contribution of three major atmospheric moisture transport pathways, that is, atmospheric rivers, low‐level jets, and tropical cyclones, to the occurrence and intensity of regional precipitation extremes. Studies on large‐scale atmospheric circulation driving water vapor transport for precipitation extremes over East Asia and North America were specifically reviewed for the understanding of physical mechanisms and predictability of moisture transport and extreme precipitation events. We then pay more attention to the effects of global warming on atmospheric moisture transport, and thus regional precipitation extremes from the perspectives of thermodynamic and dynamic changes of the atmosphere. In the end, we summarize future research challenges on the physical mechanisms of atmospheric moisture transport that are associated with regional precipitation extremes, especially under a warming climate. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Hydrological Processes

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Predictability of Extreme Precipitation in Western U.S. Watersheds Based on Atmospheric River Occurrence, Intensity, and Duration

Cited by 60 publications

References 32 publications

Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Surface Hydrological Processes in Western U.S. Watersheds

Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Surface Hydrological Processes in Western U.S. Watersheds

Global Climate Model Ensemble Approaches for Future Projections of Atmospheric Rivers

Global atmospheric moisture transport associated with precipitation extremes: Mechanisms and climate change impacts

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