Predicting COVID‐19 Incidence Using Anosmia and Other COVID‐19 Symptomatology: Preliminary Analysis Using Google and Twitter

Abstract

Objective To determine the relative correlations of Twitter and Google Search user trends concerning smell loss with daily coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence in the United States, compared to other severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) symptoms. To describe the effect of mass media communications on Twitter and Google Search user trends. Study Design Retrospective observational study. Setting United States. Subjects and Methods Google Search and “tweet” frequency concerning COVID-19, smell, and nonsmell symptoms of COVID-19 generated between January 1 and April 8, 2020, were collected using Google Trends and Crimson Hexagon, respectively. Spearman coefficients linking each of these user trends to COVID-19 incidence were compared. Correlations obtained after excluding a short timeframe (March 22 to March 24) corresponding to the publication of a widely read lay media publication reporting anosmia as a symptom of infection was performed for comparative analysis. Results Google searches and tweets concerning all nonsmell symptoms (0.744 and 0.761, respectively) and COVID-19 (0.899 and 0.848) are more strongly correlated with disease incidence than smell loss (0.564 and 0.539). Twitter users tweeting about smell loss during the study period were more likely to be female (52%) than users tweeting about COVID-19 more generally (47%). Tweet and Google Search frequency pertaining to smell loss increased significantly (>2.5 standard deviations) following a widely read media publication linking smell loss and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conclusions Google Search and tweet frequency regarding fever and shortness of breath are more robust indicators of COVID-19 incidence than anosmia. Mass media communications represent important confounders that should be considered in future analyses.

Prevalence and reversibility of smell dysfunction measured psychophysically in a cohort of COVID‐19 patients

“…Others have also seen significant discrepancies between self‐report and psychophysical olfactory test measures 21‐23 . Interestingly, the prevalence rate observed in self‐report studies appears to be positively correlated with the amount of attention in the popular press paid to COVID‐19's impact on the ability to smell 24 …”

The Role of Twitter During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Systematic Literature Review

“…The users on this social media are also interested in informing and warning their friends and followers about COVID-19 (Abd-Alrazaq et al, 2020). The spread of COVID-19 in any geographical area has led to the growth of the number of tweets and hashtags related to this disease (Bisanzio et al, 2020;Golder et al, 2020;Klein et al, 2020) and also an increase in the search for information about the symptoms of this disease (Panuganti et al, 2020). An analysis of tweets shared by users in the United States indicated that people seek information about government measures on Corona, the number of people infected in the country and the world, and prevention and treatment methods against COVID-19 (Yum, 2020).…”

“…Twitter has announced 330 million active monthly users in its firstquarter statistics for 2019 (Kullar et al, 2020). As a social media platform, Twitter facilitates user-generated thoughts, feelings, and health condition real-time research with concomitant demographic information (Panuganti et al, 2020). Top tweets included 'likes', 'retweets', and 'comments.…”

Sudden olfactory loss as an early marker of COVID-19: a nationwide Italian survey

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