Predicting the current and future distribution of three Coptis herbs in China under climate change conditions, using the MaxEnt model and chemical analysis

Li, Junjun; Fan, Gang; He, Yang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134141

Cited by 188 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…To rule out the multicollinearity on the bioclimatic variables, a variance inflation factors analysis (VIF) was used. VIF analysis calculates variance-inflation and generalized variance-inflation factors for linear, generalized linear, and other statistical models able to discriminate and select the variables [107]. VIF analysis was performed with the R software [108][109][110].…”

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Mendoza-Fernández

Martínez-Hernández

Salmerón-Sánchez

et al. 2020

Land

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Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea is a shrub belonging to the Celastraceae family, whose only European populations are distributed discontinuously along the south-eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula, forming plant communities with great ecological value, unique in Europe. As it is an endangered species that makes up plant communities with great palaeoecological significance, the development of species distribution models is of major interest under different climatic scenarios, past, present and future, based on the fact that the climate could play a relevant role in the distribution of this species, as well as in the conformation of the communities in which it is integrated. Palaeoecological models were generated for the Maximum Interglacial, Last Maximum Glacial and Middle Holocene periods. The results obtained showed that the widest distribution of this species, and the maximum suitability of its habitat, occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum, when the temperatures of the peninsular southeast were not as contrasting as those of the rest of the European continent and were favored by higher rainfall. Under these conditions, large territories could act as shelters during the glacial period, a hypothesis reflected in the model’s results for this period, which exhibit a further expansion of M. europaea’s ecological niche. The future projection of models in around 2070, for four Representative Concentration Pathways according to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showed that the most favorable areas for this species would be Campo de Dalías (southern portion of Almería province) as it presents the bioclimatic characteristics of greater adjustment to M. europaea’s ecological niche model. Currently, some of the largest specimens of the species survive in the agricultural landscapes in the southern Spain. These areas are almost totally destroyed and heavily altered by intensive agriculture greenhouses, also causing a severe fragmentation of the habitat, which implies a prospective extinction scenario in the near future.

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Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Mendoza-Fernández

Martínez-Hernández

Salmerón-Sánchez

et al. 2020

Land

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“…Thus, adverse human interference should be banned to ensure that Sinadoxa corydalifolia will be able to migrate to suitable areas in the future. In addition, we recommend that land management agencies further monitor the current status of the species and then develop a more reasonable management strategy for conservation [ 18 , 19 , 20 , 51 ]. Sinadoxa corydalifolia is an important genetic resource for species improvement [ 16 ], and plants with a narrow distribution usually have constrained ecological adaptability and are more susceptible to the impact of climate change than broadly distributed species [ 52 , 53 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

Huang

Chen

et al. 2020

Plants

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Sinadoxa corydalifolia is a perennial grass with considerable academic value as a rare species owing to habitat destruction and a narrow distribution. However, its distribution remains unclear. In this study, we predicted the distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region (the source of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River) under the context of climate change using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable distribution mainly occurred in Yushu County and Nangqian County. The suitable distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia covered 3107 km2, accounting for 0.57% of the three-river region. The mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and mean air temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) contributed the most to the distribution model for Sinadoxa corydalifolia, with a cumulative contribution of 81.4%. The highest suitability occurred when air temperature seasonality (Bio4) ranged from 6500 to 6900. The highest suitable mean air temperature of the driest quarter ranged from −5 to 0 °C. The highest suitable mean diurnal temperature (Bio2) ranged from 8.9 to 9.7 °C. In future (2041–2060) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: representative concentration pathway (RCP)26 (6171 km2) > RCP45 (6017 km2) > RCP80 (4238 km2) > RCP60 (2505 km2). In future (2061–2080) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: RCP26 (18,299 km2) > RCP60 (11,977 km2) > RCP45 (10,354 km2) > RCP80 (7539 km2). In general, the suitable distribution will increase in the future. The distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia will generally be larger under low CO2 concentrations than under high CO2 concentrations. This study will facilitate the development of appropriate conservation measures for Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region.

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“…As the coordinate system, we used WGS84, which includes indicators such as annual average, seasonal average and monthly average temperature/humidity, annual average sunshine, and annual average precipitation. CCSM4 is an efficient global climate tool for the simulation of future climatic conditions, which has been thoroughly evaluated in China and successfully applied to predict the influence of future climatic changes on the distribution of plant species in similar environments (Vertenstein et al, 2010;Meehl et al, 2012Meehl et al, , 2013Li et al, 2020;Yan et al, 2020). Four RCPs were established, ranging from RCP 2.6 (aggressive mitigation/lowest emission scenario) to RCP 8.5 (highest emission scenario) in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios were selected to model the prospective potential distribution of Dendrobium under a maximum emissions scenario hypothesis (Li et al, 2020).…”

Section: Predictor Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The predictions suggest that D. nobile and D. moniliforme have different environmental adaptabilities. The impact of climate change on plant growth and distribution is complex and multifaceted, leading to differences in the distribution and area of plants in suitable habitats in response to climate change (Qin et al, 2015;Cao et al, 2016;Tang et al, 2017;Li et al, 2020). Li et al (2019) that predicted the future suitable habitats for Tuber mustard, the predicted area of suitable habitats was increased, but were different in comparison between the 2050s and 2070s.…”

Section: Prospective Change Of Distribution Ranges In the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

How Climate Change Will Alter the Distribution of Suitable Dendrobium Habitats

2020

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To protect endangered species and restore their habitats, it is important to be able to predict their potential geographic distributions. The Dendrobium plant is important in traditional Chinese medicine, but urban expansion and over-exploitation have led to a decrease of Dendrobium resources. To achieve sustainable development of Dendrobium resources, the spatial and temporal distribution of two Dendrobium species were systematically analyzed based on the distribution points of D. moniliforme (104) and D. nobile (87). Maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats for these Dendrobium species, both currently and in the future, under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Three RCPs included RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The results show that D. moniliforme and D. nobile are widely distributed in the south of China (Anhui, Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces). Worldwide, Japan and North Korea were identified as major distribution areas for D. moniliforme and D. nobile. Based on the MaxEnt model, the mean diurnal range and the minimum temperature of the coldest month were identified as the most significant bioclimatic variables controlling the distribution of D. moniliforme and D. nobile. Future climate change will likely result in an increase of suitable habitat areas for D. moniliforme (by around 16%), and a decrease for D. nobile (by around 1-10%), but climate change is unlikely to have much impact on the distribution of suitable habitats for D. moniliforme and D. nobile in Japan and North Korea. Based on our findings, measures should be taken to protect these precious medicinal plant resources, and the sites used for the artificial cultivation of Dendrobium will need to shift as the climate changes.

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Predicting the current and future distribution of three Coptis herbs in China under climate change conditions, using the MaxEnt model and chemical analysis

Cited by 188 publications

References 36 publications

The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

How Climate Change Will Alter the Distribution of Suitable Dendrobium Habitats

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