Predicting U.S. Residential Building Energy Use and Indoor Pollutant Exposures in the Mid-21st Century

Abstract

The extent to which climate change and other factors will influence building energy use and population exposures to indoor pollutants is not well understood. Here, we develop and apply nationally representative residential energy and indoor pollutant model sets to estimate energy use, indoor pollutant concentrations, and associated chronic health outcomes across the U.S. residential building stock in the mid-21st century. The models incorporate expected changes in meteorological and ambient air quality conditions associated with IPCC RCP 8.5 and assumptions for changes in housing characteristics and population movements while keeping other less predictable factors constant. Site and source energy consumption for residential space-conditioning are predicted to decrease by ∼37–43 and ∼20–31%, respectively, in the 2050s compared to those in a 2010s reference scenario. Population-average indoor concentrations of pollutants of ambient origin are expected to decrease, except for O3. Holding indoor emission factors constant, indoor concentrations of pollutants with intermittent indoor sources are expected to decrease by <5% (PM2.5) to >30% (NO2); indoor concentrations of pollutants with persistent indoor sources (e.g., volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) are predicted to increase by ∼15–45%. We estimate negligible changes in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost associated with residential indoor pollutant exposures, well within uncertainty, although the attribution among pollutants is predicted to vary.

Impact of Climate Change on Indoor Air Quality: A Review

“…These infiltration rates were calculated using an equation from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory model, taking into consideration the indoor-outdoor temperature difference and the wind effect [ 11 ]. However, based on their residential energy and indoor air quality model, Fazli et al [ 16 ] found that infiltration factors (“the equilibrium proportion of particles remaining suspended on penetrating indoors” [ 52 ]) of PM 2.5 , UFP, NO 2 , and ozone in 2050 would be similar to those in 2010 because the effects of climate and building stoke changes neutralize each other. On the other hand, indoor-outdoor concentration ratios will be higher in 2050 for PM 2.5 , ultrafine particles, and NO 2 in homes equipped with gas stoves compared to the same ratios in 2010 due to a lower natural ventilation rate.…”

Benefits of adopting smart building technologies in building construction of developing countries: review of literature

“…Building-related anthropogenic activities harm the environment due to the high energy and resources consumed in buildings [3]. For instance, the building energy consumed in regions such as the European Union, United States, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, and Africa accounts for 40%, 20%, 90%, 73%, and 56%, respectively [4][5][6][7][8]. Consequently, the building stock in https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-022-05262-y these same regions is responsible for 36%, 40%, 60%, 33%, and 32% CO 2 emissions, respectively.…”