Prediction and valuation of ecosystem service based on land use/land cover change: A case study of the Pearl River Delta

Li, Bowen; Yang, Zhifeng; Cai, Yanpeng; Xie, Yulei; Guo, Hongjiang; Wang, Yongyang; Zhang, Pan; Li, Bo; Jia, Qunpo; Huang, Ya-Ching; Qi, Zixuan

doi:10.1016/j.ecoleng.2022.106612

Cited by 33 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…The changes in ESV were mainly due to unreasonable land use planning and low land utilization rate, which led to the rapid growth of built-up land at the expense of forest land, cultivated land, and grassland. Land use intensity has a significant negative relationship with ESV [ 57 ]. Socio-economic development led to dramatic changes in land use structure, and the increase in land use intensity was the direct cause of ESV degradation [ 58 , 59 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Relationship between Land Use Intensity and Ecosystem Services’ Value in the Hanjiang River Basin: A Case Study of the Hubei Section

Yang

Zheng

Wang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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An increased land use intensity due to rapid urbanization and socio-economic development would alter the structure and function of regional ecosystems and cause prominent environmental problems. Revealing the impact of land use intensity on ecosystem services (ES) would provide guidance for more informed decision making to promote the sustainable development of human and natural systems. In this study, we selected the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) in Hubei Province (China) as our study area, explored the correlation between land use intensity and ecosystem Services’ Value (ESV), and investigated impacts of natural and socio-economic factors on ESV variations based on the Geographical Detector Model (GDM) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2020, land use intensity in HRB generally showed an upward trend, with a high spatial agglomeration in the southeast and low in the northwest; (2) the total ESV increased from 295.56 billion CNY in 2000 to 296.93 billion CNY in 2010, and then decreased to 295.63 CNY in 2020, exhibiting an inverted U-shaped trend, with regulation services contributing the most to ESV; (3) land use intensity and ESV had a strong negative spatial correlation, with LH (low land use intensity vs. high ESV) aggregations mainly distributed in the northwest, whereas HL (high land use intensity vs. low ESV) aggregations were located in the southeast; (4) natural factors, including annual mean temperature, the percentage of forest land, and slope were positively associated with ESV, while socio-economic factors, including GDP and population density, were negatively associated with ESV. To achieve the coordinated development of the socio-economy and the environment, ES should be incorporated into spatial planning and socio-economic development policies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Relationship between Land Use Intensity and Ecosystem Services’ Value in the Hanjiang River Basin: A Case Study of the Hubei Section

Yang

Zheng

Wang

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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“…Socioeconomic and natural environmental drivers were extracted by a random forest model (Song et al, 2015), the expansion probability of land use from 1995 to 2005 was obtained, and the expansion probability was applied to the simulation of land use change from 2005 to 2015 to test the consistency between simulated data and real data and verify the reliability of land expansion probability. Based on the probability of land expansion and Markov land change data (Li et al, 2022), the characteristics of land use change in 2035 were predicted. Finally, the multiscenario land prediction data were used to analyze the ESs, and the characteristics of different land use change patterns were compared to explore the land use change patterns based on ES optimization.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since then, research on the relationship between land use change and ESs (Cui et al, 2015; Liu et al, 2021; Qiu et al, 2021; Wang, Wang, et al, 2022) has become popular in academia, and the research results have been fruitful. In general, under the dual effects of economic growth and social progress, the value of ESs mostly presents a downward trend (Song & Deng, 2017), especially in regions with rapid economic development, and rapid urbanization is the main factor leading to the decline in the value of ESs (Gao et al, 2021; Li et al, 2022; Qiu et al, 2021). For single ES value changes, peat wetlands are an important carbon storage (CS) place globally, but with the aggravation of the global greenhouse effect, the CS capacity reveals a declining trend (Cui et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecast of policy‐driven land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in China: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Wang

Zhou

2023

Integr Envir Assess & Manag

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Land use change is an important factor affecting the performance of ecosystem services (ESs). Therefore, understanding the impact of land use change on ESs is of great significance for promoting the coordination of regional human–land relationships. In this study, random forest and cellular automata were used to simulate and predict the characteristics of land use change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and diversified land use evolution patterns were formed in combination with China's strategic development needs. The effects of habitat suitability on ESs were analyzed by using a multiscenario land use change model. The results demonstrated that the driving factors selected in this article had a good induction effect on the law of land use evolution, and the simulated land use change had high credibility. Under the mode of ecological protection and cultivated land protection, the expansion of construction land was greatly affected and was not conducive to social and economic development. Under the natural evolution mode, farmland was greatly encroached upon, and food security was greatly threatened. The regional coordination model had relative advantages, and all kinds of land use needs were met to a certain extent. The water production function of ESs was strong, but the carbon storage function was weak. The relationship between the habitat suitability index and ES changes under land use change revealed that there were significant differences in ES changes caused by ecological quality changes in mountainous and plain areas. This study provides a reference for promoting social and economic development and ecosystem integrity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1–13. © 2023 SETAC

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“…, konversi lahan pertanian dan sawah ini terjadi karena faktor kepadatan penduduk. Kepadatan penduduk merupakan faktor yang utama dalam perubahan setiap lahan (Purswani, Verma, Jayakumar, Khan, & Pathak, 2022;Gadrani, Lominadze, & Tsitsagi, 2018) Selain itu daerah yang mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pesat dapat mempengaruhi keberlanjutan ekosistem disekitarnya (Li et al, 2022). Faktor inilah yang menyebabkan lahan pertanian maupun sawah lebih luas terkonversi menjadi lahan terbangun.…”

Section: Kontribusi Penulisunclassified

DINAMIKA PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DI SUB DAS CIRASEA (DAS CITARUM HULU) (The Dynamics of Land Use Change in The Cirasea Sub-Watershed (Citarum Hulu Watershed))

Davik¹,

Rachman

Hidayat

et al. 2022

JPPDAS

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The Cirasea sub-watershed is one of the sub-watersheds that has an important role in the management of the Upper Citarum watershed. The decline in land use has an impact on the hydrological system of the watershed, which is caused by changes in land use. The land-use change is determined by analyzing the results of the classification using the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) algorithm in QGIS software. Land use classification using Landsat Image 2009-2019. The classification results include forest, secondary forest, built-up areas, open land, plantations, dryland farming, rice fields, shrubs, and water bodies. The accuracy test using the Kappa Index reached 85.15% or almost perfect. The land use classification that occurs shows changes in the area between 2009 and 2019. The land that has decreased is 1,437.13 ha of forest, 1,336.21 ha of rice fields, 367.83 ha of secondary forest, and 94,148 ha of dryland farming. Meanwhile, land that has increased is 1,476.69 ha of open land, 1,056.39 ha of built-up areas, 463.63 ha of shrubs, 235 ha of plantations, and 3.07 ha of water bodies.

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Prediction and valuation of ecosystem service based on land use/land cover change: A case study of the Pearl River Delta

Cited by 33 publications

References 43 publications

Quantifying the Relationship between Land Use Intensity and Ecosystem Services’ Value in the Hanjiang River Basin: A Case Study of the Hubei Section

Quantifying the Relationship between Land Use Intensity and Ecosystem Services’ Value in the Hanjiang River Basin: A Case Study of the Hubei Section

Forecast of policy‐driven land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in China: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

DINAMIKA PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DI SUB DAS CIRASEA (DAS CITARUM HULU) (The Dynamics of Land Use Change in The Cirasea Sub-Watershed (Citarum Hulu Watershed))

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