Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution
of Endangered Relict Tree Species
&lt;i&gt;Dipteronia sinensis&lt;/i&gt; in China Based
on MaxEnt and GIS

Zeng, Yan; Pan, Jing; Chen, Hao; Yang, Jingtian

doi:10.15244/pjoes/146936

Cited by 13 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…In this analysis, when the presence probability exceeded 0.5, it indicated that the corresponding environmental factor value favoured the growth of S . italica [ 12 ]. To provide a more intuitive description of the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of S .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change

Yang,

Jiang,

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change

Yang,

Jiang,

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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“…Temperature regulates plant metabolic rates, which are critical for plant survival, growth, and reproduction. The variation range of temperature was closely related to the large-scale landscape geographical distribution of plant species [27,28]. The elevation is also a second important factor in the distribution of D. oxleyanus, with a percent contribution and permutation importance of 16.1% and 13%, respectively, and the habitat suitability at elevation was 400-800 m asl.…”

Section: Potential Distribution Areas Of D Oxleyanus In Sumatramentioning

confidence: 94%

Potential Geographic Distribution of <i>Durio oxleyanus</i> (Malvaceae): a Threatened Wild Fruit Plant Species in Sumatra, Indonesia

Suwardi¹,

SYAMSUARDI²,

Mukhtar³

et al. 2023

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Durio oxleyanus is a threatened species native to Southeast Asia, particularly Borneo and Sumatra. Future climate changes are expected to have a significant impact on D. oxleyanus. The aims of this study, therefore, were (1) assessing the potential distribution of D. oxleyanus in Sumatra, (2) determining the main variables influencing D. oxleyanus distribution and their suitable range, and (3) simulating the changing trend of D. oxleyanus suitable habitat under climate change scenarios. We modeled the current and future distributions of D. oxleyanus using three representative concentration pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The findings demonstrate that the AUC values of all simulations were greater than 0.916. The key environmental variables influencing the potential distribution of D. oxleyanus were mean temperature of the coldest quarter (20-25ºC), elevation (400-800 m), temperature seasonality (50-60%), and precipitation of coldest quarter (500-750 mm). The highly suitable habitat covered 1,303.85 ha, with the majority of it concentrated in two provinces, i.e. Aceh and Sumatera Barat. The total areas of the suitable habitat of D. oxleyanus showed decreasing trends under the three climate change scenarios, and the geometric center of the highly suitable habitat shifted westsouth of Sumatra. Our findings can serve as a scientific foundation for the protection, cultivation, and long-term management of D. oxleyanus.

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“…According to Li et al [17], the ecological niche of Paeonia delavayi may also be affected by rapid changes in temperature and precipitation in the context of global climate change. Liu et al [36] used the Maxent model to simulate the response of Paeonia delavayi to climate change, showing that the area and elevation of the plant's range would change with increasing temperature, and the plant's response to climate change was simulated by Liu et al Huang et al [1] explored the potential habitat of Dipteronia sinensis and showed that the suitable distribution areas of plants are strongly influenced by climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation and will change with changes in these variables, with some habitat areas disappearing and some new habitat areas emerging. Yang et al [37] showed that temperature, precipitation, and their variation are the main environmental factors governing Xikang Yucca, further illustrating the study's accuracy.…”

Section: Changes In the Potential Geographical Distribution Of Paeoni...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among the top ten environmental problems in the world, climate change is listed as the most important issue. In the context of global climate change, the response and feedback of food crops to climate change have become one of the core research areas and focal issues [1]. Climate change irreversibly changes the ecosystem and ecological environment on which species depend.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Changes in the Anthropocene Have Increased the Suitable Habitat Areas of <i>Paeonia delavayi</i> in China

Huang¹,

Zhao²,

Cai³

et al. 2023

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Paeonia delavayi is a woody plant of the peony group, endemic to China, and has been a traditional medicinal herb since ancient times, as well as a valuable resource for breeding new peony species. Predicting the contemporary and future distribution patterns of Paeonia delavayi in suitable habitats under climate change conditions can provide scientific data to support the establishment of effective conservation. The potential distribution area of the endangered medicinal plant Paeonia delavayi was simulated by the Maxent model. The contribution rate of environmental factors and the knife-cut method were used to test and analyse the factors affecting the distribution of Paeonia delavayi. The response curves were used to determine the appropriate values of environmental factors. The AUC value for Paeonia lactiflora was 0.990, indicating excellent model accuracy. The current total suitable habitat area of Paeonia delavayi was 41.58×104 km 2 , located in the southwest region of China. The high suitable habitat area of Paeonia delavayi was 3.71×104 km 2 , accounting for 8.92% of the total suitable habitat area, mainly distributed in the south of Sichuan, north of Yunnan, and south of Chongqing in thin strips. The most important environmental factor affecting the geographic distribution of Paeonia delavayi is isothermal (Bio3). Under the future climate change scenario, the total suitable habitat area of Paeonia delavayi will increase significantly, and the area of highly suitable habitat will also increase. The centroid of the highly suitable area tends to migrate to high latitude and northwest direction, and the migration range is greater under the high-concentration emission scenario. The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the in-situ protection and sustainable utilization of Paeonia delavayi.

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Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution of Endangered Relict Tree Species <i>Dipteronia sinensis</i> in China Based on MaxEnt and GIS

Cited by 13 publications

References 34 publications

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change

Potential Geographic Distribution of <i>Durio oxleyanus</i> (Malvaceae): a Threatened Wild Fruit Plant Species in Sumatra, Indonesia

Climatic Changes in the Anthropocene Have Increased the Suitable Habitat Areas of <i>Paeonia delavayi</i> in China

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