Predictive models of distribution and abundance of a threatened mountain species show that impacts of climate change overrule those of land use change

Barras, Arnaud; Braunisch, Veronika; Arlettaz, Raphaël

doi:10.1111/ddi.13247

Cited by 28 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…Our study highlights different demographic trends across the range of the ring ouzel: population declines at the range margin (Vercors and Scotland) and stable or slightly increasing numbers closer to the core of its range in the Alps (Valais). This view is corroborated by recent observations and predictions of the species' demographic trajectories across the Swiss mountain massifs, where peripheral populations suffer more than central ones (Knaus et al, 2018;Barras et al, 2021a). Our findings of a very low local juvenile recruitment and a rather high immigration rate in the Valais population might indicate that we are in the presence of a complex metapopulation system, with numerous exchanges of individuals between subpopulations.…”

Section: Conservation Implications and Adaptive Potential To Environm...supporting

confidence: 90%

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Barras

Blache²,

Schaub

et al. 2021

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Species- and population-specific responses to their environment may depend to a large extent on the spatial variation in life-history traits and in demographic processes of local population dynamics. Yet, those parameters and their variability remain largely unknown for many cold-adapted species, which are exposed to particularly rapid rates of environmental change. Here, we compared the demographic traits and dynamics for an emblematic bird species of European mountain ecosystems, the ring ouzel (Turdus torquatus). Using integrated population models fitted in a Bayesian framework, we estimated the survival probability, productivity and immigration of two populations from the Western European Alps, in France (over 11 years) and Switzerland (over 6 years). Juvenile apparent survival was lower and immigration rate higher in the Swiss compared to the French population, with the temporal variation in population growth rate driven by different demographic processes. Yet, when compared to populations in the northwestern part of the range, in Scotland, these two Alpine populations both showed a much lower productivity and higher adult survival, indicating a slower life-history strategy. Our results suggest that demographic characteristics can substantially vary across the discontinuous range of this passerine species, essentially due to contrasted, possibly locally evolved life-history strategies. This study therefore raises the question of whether flexibility in life-history traits is widespread among boreo-alpine species and if it might provide adaptive potential for coping with current environmental change.

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Section: Conservation Implications and Adaptive Potential To Environm...supporting

confidence: 90%

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Barras

Blache²,

Schaub

et al. 2021

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…Therefore, if preserving the high biodiversity of alpine landscapes is a conservation goal, then policies should support the maintenance of traditional land-use practices in high-elevation areas 19,20,44,59,61 that will ensure the continuity of the ecological niches for alpine species and limit the spread of forest species that threaten them 45,63 . These measures are also important for other organisms that inhabit such habitats, such as the mountain hare or ring ouzel, which are especially vulnerable to global warming 64,65 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High resolution ancient sedimentary DNA shows that alpine plant biodiversity is a result of human land use

Garcés-Pastor¹,

Coissac²,

Lavergne³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Alpine areas are well known biodiversity hotspots, but their future may be threatened by expanding forest and changing human land use. Here, we reconstructed past vegetation, climate, and livestock over the past ~ 12,000 years from Lake Sulsseewli (European Alps), based on sedimentary ancient DNA, pollen, spores, chironomids, and microcharcoal. We assembled a highly-complete local DNA reference library (PhyloAlps, 3,923 plant species), and used this to obtain an exceptionally rich sedaDNA record of 366 plant taxa. The vegetation mainly responded to temperature during the first half of the Holocene, while human activity drove changes from 6 ka onwards. Land-use shifted from episodic grazing (Neolithic, Bronze Age) to agropastoral intensification (Medieval Age). This prompted a coexistence of species typically found at different elevational belts, thereby increasing plant richness to levels that characterise present-day alpine diversity. Our results indicate that traditional agropastoral activities should be maintained to prevent reforestation and preserve alpine plant biodiversity.

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“…Such a type of approach proved successful for modelling abundance over large spatial extents, especially when large amount of presence or presence absence data is available (e.g. Barras, Braunisch, & Arlettaz, 2021). Yet, we focused here on highlighting differences in model outcomes depending on the type of dataset used for modelling allergenic tree species distribution.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping abundance distributions of allergenic tree species in urbanized landscapes: A nation-wide study for Belgium using forest inventory and citizen science data

Dujardin

Stas

Eupen

et al. 2022

Landscape and Urban Planning

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Predictive models of distribution and abundance of a threatened mountain species show that impacts of climate change overrule those of land use change

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 28 publications

References 75 publications

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

Variation in Demography and Life-History Strategies Across the Range of a Declining Mountain Bird Species

High resolution ancient sedimentary DNA shows that alpine plant biodiversity is a result of human land use

Mapping abundance distributions of allergenic tree species in urbanized landscapes: A nation-wide study for Belgium using forest inventory and citizen science data

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