Predictive skill of a subset of models participating in D‐PHASE in the COPS region

Bauer, Hans‐Stefan; Weusthoff, Tanja; Dorninger, Manfred; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Schwitalla, Thomas; Gorgas, T.; Arpagaus, M.; Warrach‐Sagi, Kirsten

doi:10.1002/qj.715

Cited by 48 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…This scale was chosen in order to simulate feedback processes between areas with different land-surface properties, atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), convection initiation, clouds and precipitation as realistically as possible. Recent results of convection-permitting simulations confirm their superior performance compared to models with convection parameterization with respect to the resolution of landsurface heterogeneity and orography (Schwitalla et al, 2008;Wulfmeyer et al, 2008Wulfmeyer et al, , 2011Rotach et al, 2009a, b) and to enhanced forecast skills Bauer et al, 2011). Convection-permitting resolution is essential in this study, particularly considering the relatively small spatial domain of the Jatropha curcas plantation.…”

Section: Model Set Upsupporting

confidence: 53%

Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation

et al. 2013

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Abstract. We present a comprehensive, interdisciplinary project which demonstrates that large-scale plantations of Jatropha curcas – if established in hot, dry coastal areas around the world – could capture 17–25 t of carbon dioxide per hectare per year from the atmosphere (over a 20 yr period). Based on recent farming results it is confirmed that the Jatropha curcas plant is well adapted to harsh environments and is capable of growing alone or in combination with other tree and shrub species with minimal irrigation in hot deserts where rain occurs only sporadically. Our investigations indicate that there is sufficient unused and marginal land for the widespread cultivation of Jatropha curcas to have a significant impact on atmospheric CO2 levels at least for several decades. In a system in which desalinated seawater is used for irrigation and for delivery of mineral nutrients, the sequestration costs were estimated to range from 42–63 EUR per tonne CO2. This result makes carbon farming a technology that is competitive with carbon capture and storage (CCS). In addition, high-resolution simulations using an advanced land-surface–atmosphere model indicate that a 10 000 km2 plantation could produce a reduction in mean surface temperature and an onset or increase in rain and dew fall at a regional level. In such areas, plant growth and CO2 storage could continue until permanent woodland or forest had been established. In other areas, salinization of the soil may limit plant growth to 2–3 decades whereupon irrigation could be ceased and the captured carbon stored as woody biomass.

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Section: Model Set Upsupporting

confidence: 53%

Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation

et al. 2013

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“…In general, the AROME model was found to overpredict the precipitation, as indicated by bias values of the order of 1.1. This point has already been stressed by Bauer et al (2011a), who analyzed the results of the COPS real-time forecasts. Assimilation of the lidar observations did not correct the overestimation.…”

Section: Whole Periodmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Since the forecast is too far from reality, the assimilation does not help to improve the forecast. Secondly, July 2007 was abnormally moist and during the forecast period the COPS area was crossed by a sequence of frontal and mesoscale convective system passages (Bauer et al, 2011a). As a result, the daily precipitation cycle did not show the usual summertime mid-afternoon peak but instead an early night maximum, not especially connected with the diurnal heating forcing but rather with the timing of the synoptic perturbations.…”

Section: Whole Periodmentioning

confidence: 97%

Assimilation of water‐vapour airborne lidar observations: impact study on the COPS precipitation forecasts

Bielli

Grzeschik

Richard

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The Convective and Orographically-driven Precipitation Study (COPS) carried out in summer 2007 over northeastern France and southwestern Germany provided a fairly comprehensive description of the low-troposphere water-vapour field, thanks in particular to the deployment of two airborne differential absorption lidar systems. These lidar observations were assimilated using the 3D-Var assimilation system of the Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale (AROME) numerical weather prediction mesoscale model. The assimilation was carried out for the period 4 July-3 August by running a three-hour forward intermittent assimilation cycle. First, the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the analyses with a set of more than 200 independent soundings. The lidar observations were found to have a positive impact on the analyses by reducing the dry bias in the first 500 m above ground level and by diminishing the root-mean-square error by roughly 15% in the first km. Then the impact of the lidar observations was assessed by comparing the precipitation forecasts (obtained with and without the lidar observations for the period 15 July-2 August) with the gridded precipitation observations provided by the Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis. In general, the impact was found to be positive but not significant for the 24 h precipitation and positive and significant for the 6 h precipitation, with an improvement lasting up to 24 h. Some selected case studies show that the improvement was obtained through a better depiction of convection initiation or through a more accurate positioning of the precipitation systems.

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“…With respect to the timing of the maxima, AROME-EPS shows a time shift of −3 h, with ALADIN-LAEF showing a time shift of −6 h for weak synoptic forcing in regions Austria and West (panels b and d), respectively. Because of the limited framework of this study we can only speculate that this behavior might be due to differences caused by the deep convection scheme in ALADIN-LAEF, which is one of the reasons that causes an early onset of precipitation (Bechtold et al, 2013) and, respectively, the explicit simulation of deep convection in AROME. Another reason, which we cannot exclude, could be that ALADIN-LAEF and AROME apply different physical parameterizations.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Precipitation Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Focus will be on the capabilities of the CP ensemble to quantitatively predict precipitation during a convective summer period over an area consisting of mountains and lowlands. Of interest here is the Alpine region, since the impacts of the mountainous terrain, such as windward/lee effects, the differential heating of valley, and mountain slopes can cause large inaccuracies in forecasting convective precipitation and pose a challenge for numerical models and their physical parameterizations (Richard et al, 2007;Wulfmeyer et al, 2008Wulfmeyer et al, , 2011Bauer et al, 2011). Therefore, an evaluation study is designed and conducted for a typical convective season (3 months, MayAugust 2011), i.e., a period, which is long enough to make at least basic statements about the significance of results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

Schellander-Gorgas¹,

Wang²,

Meier³

et al. 2017

Geosci. Model Dev.

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Abstract. The 2.5 km convection-permitting (CP) ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale -Ensemble Prediction System) is evaluated by comparison with the regional 11 km ensemble ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaption dynamique Développement InterNational -Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting) to show whether a benefit is provided by a CP EPS. The evaluation focuses on the abilities of the ensembles to quantitatively predict precipitation during a 3-month convective summer period over areas consisting of mountains and lowlands. The statistical verification uses surface observations and 1 km × 1 km precipitation analyses, and the verification scores involve state-of-the-art statistical measures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts as well as novel spatial verification methods. The results show that the convectionpermitting ensemble with higher-resolution AROME-EPS outperforms its mesoscale counterpart ALADIN-LAEF for precipitation forecasts. The positive impact is larger for the mountainous areas than for the lowlands. In particular, the diurnal precipitation cycle is improved in AROME-EPS, which leads to a significant improvement of scores at the concerned times of day (up to approximately one-third of the scored verification measure). Moreover, there are advantages for higher precipitation thresholds at small spatial scales, which are due to the improved simulation of the spatial structure of precipitation.

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Predictive skill of a subset of models participating in D‐PHASE in the COPS region

Abstract: The unique combination of observing and modelling efforts during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) and D-PHASE (Demonstration of the

Cited by 48 publications

References 43 publications

Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation

Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation

Assimilation of water‐vapour airborne lidar observations: impact study on the COPS precipitation forecasts

On the forecast skill of a convection-permitting ensemble

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