Predictors of marathon performance in female runners

Abstract

Running velocity at VO 2 max (vVO2max) is predictive of distance running performance in females for distances of 1500 to 10,000m, but has yet to be investigated in prolonged events such as the marathon. This study investigated the relationship between marathon run time, VO 2 max, vVO 2 max, and running economy (RE) in 19 recreational female runners (xage = 33.56 ± 7.53 yrs; xwt = 58.46 ± 6.94 kg; xht = 165.63 ± 6.30 cm) who were training for a local marathon. Subjects completed a test for VO 2 max (x = 52.86 ± 6.12 ml.min -1. kg -1 ) and a second treadmill test for RE at 4 different speeds. Submaximal speeds were individualized based on self reported training pace. Mean marathon run time was 241.5 ± 33.3 minutes. VO 2 max was the best performance predictor (r = -0.74, p 0.01) and explained 56% of the variance of run time. The relationship between vVO 2 max and run time was also significant, but the relationship was not as strong as for VO 2 max (r = -0.64, p 0.01). The relationship between performance time and weekly training mileage was also significant (r = -0.63, p 0.01). Regression of V0 2 max, vV0 2 max, and weekly training mileage revealed a multiple R of .87 (R 2 = 0.75, p ^ 0.01). Even though it was still a significant contributor, this study failed to support vVO 2 max as the best predictor of performance in recreational female runners. However, these data reinforce the notion that physiological variables such as VO 2 max (or vVO 2 max) combined with external factors (weekly training) are important factors in marathon performance.