Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019‐nCoV

Abstract

Objectives:To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Methods:Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Results:The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues. Conclusions:The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS.It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions. K E Y W O R D S2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), basic reproduction number, epidemiology

Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases

“…Our estimated 0 range of 1.6-4.2 for COVID-19 is consistent with other preliminary estimates posted on public domains [25][26][27][28], and is comparable to the 0 of SARS, which was in the range of 2-5 during the 2003 outbreak in Singapore [15]. Between our two estimates, the latter scenario yielded a greater value than the former, and there was an increasingly improved ascertainment in early January 2020.…”

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19): The epidemic and the challenges

“…Based on observations of data from the early outbreak in mainland China from 10-24 January 2020, the trend of an increasing incidence largely follows exponential growth, and the mean basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) was estimated to range from 2.24 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96-2.55] to 3.58 (95% CI 2.89-4.39), associated with two-to eight-fold increases in the reporting rate [11] . Another estimation based on data from 31 December 2019 to 28 January 2020 suggested similar findings, with the R 0 for COVID-19 being 2.68 [95% credible interval (CrI) 2.47-2.86] and the epidemic doubling time being 6.4 days (95% CrI 5.8-7.1 days) [29] .…”

“…Moreover, according to one study, presumed hospital-related transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was suspected in 41% of patients [8] . Based on the evidence of a rapidly increasing incidence of infections [11] and the possibility of transmission by asymptomatic carriers [12] , SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted effectively among humans and exhibits high potential February 20, 2020;7:4 ] for a pandemic [5 , 10 , 13] . In addition to the high transmission efficiency of SARS-CoV-2, the advancement and convenience of global travel could further enhance its worldwide spread [12] .…”

Practical recommendations for critical care and anesthesiology teams caring for novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) patients

“…2,5 Mechanisms of transmission are believed to include contact, droplet, and possibly airborne under certain circumstances based on historical experiences related to SARS-CoV outbreaks. [6][7][8][9][10] The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) for this infection, given variable host and environmental factors, is estimated in the initial outbreak to be between 2.2 and 3.6 (number of cases generated after exposure to one patient), 11 which is similar to SARS-CoV but higher than MERS-CoV. The case fatality rate is estimated to be approximately 2% based on latest reported data, 12 less than SARS-CoV (approximately 10%) 13 and MERS-CoV (approximately 40%) 14 but significantly higher than the 2009 pH1N1 (0.026%).…”