Present‐Day Greenland Ice Sheet Climate and Surface Mass Balance in CESM2

Kampenhout, Leo van; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lipscomb, William H.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noël, Brice; Vizcaíno, Miren; Sacks, William J.; Broeke, M. R. van den

doi:10.1029/2019jf005318

Cited by 36 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 112 publications

(186 reference statements)

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“…The Greenland ice sheet Surface Mass Balance (SMB) for the 1961-1990 mean of the CESM2(CAM6) historical simulation agrees well with the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 simulation, albeit with a positive SMB bias in southern Greenland associated with excessive snowfall (Danabasoglu et al, 2020;van Kampenhout et al, 2020). Associated with warmer climates of the LIG and MH, enhanced precipitation with storm tracks results in more positive SMB in southern and southeastern Greenland, particularly so in the lig127k, as compared to the piControl (Figure 7).…”

Section: Greenland Ice Sheetmentioning

confidence: 57%

A Comparison of the CMIP6midHoloceneandlig127kSimulations in CESM2

Otto‐Bliesner

Brady

Tomas

et al. 2020

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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Results are presented and compared for the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulations of the middle Holocene (MH, 6 ka) and Last Interglacial (LIG, 127 ka). These simulations are designated as Tier 1 experiments (midHolocene and lig127k) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). They use the low-top, standard 1°version of CESM2 contributing to CMIP6 DECK, historical, and future projection simulations, and to other modeling intercomparison projects. The midHolocene and lig127k provide the opportunity to examine the responses in CESM2 to the orbitally induced changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation. The insolation anomalies result in summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents, reduced Arctic summer minimum sea ice, and increased areal extent of the North African monsoon. The Arctic remains warm throughout the year. These changes are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulation. Other notable changes are reduction of the Niño3.4 variability and Drake Passage transport and a small increase in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the piControl to midHolocene to lig127k simulation. Comparisons to paleo-data and to simulations from previous model versions are discussed. Possible reasons for mismatches with the paleo-observations are proposed, including missing processes in CESM2, simplifications in the CMIP6 protocols for these experiments, and dating and calibration uncertainties in the data reconstructions. Plain Language Summary The modeling of past climates, using physically based tools and comparing to paleo-observations, is increasingly seen as a strong test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. We report on simulations by one of the latest large-scale climate models, the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), for the two most recent warm epochs: the current interglacial-the Holocene, which began 11,650 years agoand the previous interglacial-the Last Interglacial, which extended from 129,000 to 116,000 years ago. The simulations find summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents, reduced Arctic summer sea ice, and increased areal extent of the North African monsoon. Cryospheric and oceanic feedbacks drive year-round Arctic warmth. The CESM2 middle Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations are an important resource for the community participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

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Section: Greenland Ice Sheetmentioning

confidence: 57%

A Comparison of the CMIP6midHoloceneandlig127kSimulations in CESM2

Otto‐Bliesner

Brady

Tomas

et al. 2020

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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“…RACMO2 is an RCM that is specifically adapted to simulate the SMB of polar ice sheets (Noël et al, 2018;Van Wessem et al, 2018). The model incorporates the dynamical core of the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) (Undèn et al, 2002) and the physics package cycle CY33r1 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS, 2008).…”

Section: Regional Atmospheric Climate Model: Racmo2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Brief communication: CESM2 climate forcing (1950–2014) yields realistic Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance

et al. 2020

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Abstract. We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) using a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ∼11 km) to dynamically downscale the climate of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2; ∼111 km). After further statistical downscaling to 1 km spatial resolution, evaluation using in situ SMB measurements and remotely sensed GrIS mass change shows good agreement. Comparison with an ensemble of previously conducted RACMO2 simulations forced by climate reanalysis demonstrates that the current product realistically represents the long-term average and variability of individual SMB components and captures the recent increase in meltwater runoff that accelerated GrIS mass loss. This means that, for the first time, climate forcing from an Earth system model (CESM2), which assimilates no observations, can be used without additional corrections to reconstruct the historical GrIS SMB and its recent decline that initiated mass loss in the 1990s. This paves the way for attribution studies of future GrIS mass loss projections and contribution to sea level rise.

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“…This would be possible if following an overshoot scenario, where mitigation and decarbonization are applied in a way that surface temperatures would peak above desired temperature targets for a limited time and then slowly decline below these temperature targets. A so-called peak-shaving scenario was proposed that would potentially help prevent reaching tipping points until greenhouse gas levels have been sufficiently reduced (Wigley, 2006;Tilmes et al, 2016;Mac-Martin et al, 2018;Lawrence et al, 2018). Tilmes et al (2016) and Jones et al (2018) have produced simulations that kept surface temperature increases to 1.5 or 2 • C levels using different RCP forcing scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

et al. 2020

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Abstract. A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ∘C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30∘ N, 15∘ N, 15∘ S, and 30∘ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ∘C vs. 2.0 ∘C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

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Present‐Day Greenland Ice Sheet Climate and Surface Mass Balance in CESM2

Cited by 36 publications

References 112 publications

A Comparison of the CMIP6midHoloceneandlig127kSimulations in CESM2

A Comparison of the CMIP6midHoloceneandlig127kSimulations in CESM2

Brief communication: CESM2 climate forcing (1950–2014) yields realistic Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance

Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

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