Prevalence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in mainland China: analysis of National Surveillance Data, 2004–2009

Abstract

The monthly and annual incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China for 2004-2009 was analysed in conjunction with associated geographical and demographic data. We applied the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to fit and forecast monthly HFRS incidence in China. HFRS was endemic in most regions of China except Hainan Province. There was a high risk of infection for male farmers aged 30-50 years. The fitted SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model had a root-mean-square-error criterion of 0·0133 that indicated accurate forecasts were possible. These findings have practical applications for more effective HFRS control and prevention. The conducted SARIMA model may have applications as a decision support tool in HFRS control and risk-management planning programmes.

Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to Predict the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Zibo, China, 2004–2014

“…The ARIMA model has its advantages in time-series analyses. The secular trend, seasonal variation, and autocorrelation can all be easily controlled by difference, autoregression, moving average, and seasonal functions without performing complicated transformations or using extra surrogate variables (6). Once a satisfactory model has been obtained, it can be used to forecast the expected number of cases for a given number of future time intervals (28).…”

“…An ARIMA (p, d, q) model comprises 3 types of parameters (15,23,24): the autoregressive parameters (p), number of differencing passes (d), and moving average parameters (q). The multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model is an extension of the ARIMA method of time series in which a pattern repeats seasonally over time (6,22,23). Analogous to the simple ARIMA parameters, the seasonal parameters are: seasonal autoregressive (P), seasonal differencing (D), and seasonal moving average parameters (Q).…”

“…The ARIMA model procedure consists of 3 iterative steps (6,22,24): identification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. Prior to fitting the ARIMA model, an appropriate difference of the series is usually performed to make the series stationary.…”

“…In China, the causative agents of HFRS are predominately Hantaan virus (HTNV) and Seoul virus (SEOV), which result in fatality rates of approximately 10z and 1z, respectively (5). HTNV causes a more severe form of HFRS than SEOV and is associated with Apodemus agrarius, whereas SEOV is typically carried by Rattus norvegicus (6)(7)(8). Hantaviruses are primarily transmitted from rodent host to human by aerosols generated from contaminated urine and feces, and possibly from contaminated food or rodent bites (9)(10)(11).…”

Acute Kidney Injury in Asia

“…The etiologic agents are of the genus hantavirus, and the main natural reservoir hosts are the brown Norway rat and striped field mouse, which can be found in nearly all provinces in China. Clinical symptoms include fever, headache, back pain, abdominal pain, hypotension, multisystemic hemorrhage, and AKI [36,37]. Prominent renal dysfunction is seen in 80-90% of the infected patients, and about 1/3 of the cases develop severe AKI (stage 3) or need dialysis [37,38].…”