Probabilistic analysis of hydrological drought characteristics using meteorological drought

Wong, Geraldine; Lanen, H.A.J. van; Torfs, P.J.J.F.

doi:10.1080/02626667.2012.753147

Cited by 113 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Quantification of this relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought is barely investigated and has proven to be very difficult. To our knowledge, the best effort is elaborated in the recent paper of Wong et al (2012). They found that copulas have more potential to link a hydrological drought to preceding meteorological drought(s) than classical linear correlation techniques.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

Loon

Huijgevoort

Lanen

2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

146

102

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Abstract. Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought? To answer this question, we evaluated the simulation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of ten large-scale models, both landsurface models and global hydrological models, that participated in the model intercomparison project of WATCH (WaterMIP). For a selection of case study areas, we studied drought characteristics (number of droughts, duration, severity), drought propagation features (pooling, attenuation, lag, lengthening), and hydrological drought typology (classical rainfall deficit drought, rain-to-snow-season drought, wet-todry- season drought, cold snow season drought, warm snow season drought, composite drought).Drought characteristics simulated by large-scale models clearly reflected drought propagation; i.e. drought events became fewer and longer when moving through the hydrological cycle. However, more differentiation was expected between fast and slowly responding systems, with slowly responding systems having fewer and longer droughts in runoff than fast responding systems. This was not found using largescale models. Drought propagation features were poorly reproduced by the large-scale models, because runoff reacted immediately to precipitation, in all case study areas. This fast reaction to precipitation, even in cold climates in winter and in semi-arid climates in summer, also greatly influenced the hydrological drought typology as identified by the largescale models. In general, the large-scale models had the correct representation of drought types, but the percentages of occurrence had some important mismatches, e.g. an overestimation of classical rainfall deficit droughts, and an underestimation of wet-to-dry-season droughts and snow-related droughts. Furthermore, almost no composite droughts were simulated for slowly responding areas, while many multiyear drought events were expected in these systems.We conclude that most drought propagation processes are reasonably well reproduced by the ensemble mean of largescale models in contrasting catchments in Europe. Challenges, however, remain in catchments with cold and semiarid climates and catchments with large storage in aquifers or lakes. This leads to a high uncertainty in hydrological drought simulation at large scales. Improvement of drought simulation in large-scale models should focus on a better representation of hydrological processes that are important for drought development, such as evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and melt, and especially storage. Besides the more explicit inclusion of storage in largescale models, also parametrisation of storage processes requires attention, for example through a global-scale dataset on aquifer characteristics, improved large-scale datasets on other land characteristics...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

Loon

Huijgevoort

Lanen

2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

146

102

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Song and Singh (2009) used elliptical copulas to model the joint distribution of drought severity and interval time. Wong et al (2013) applied copulas to investigate the cross-dependence between meteorological and hydrological drought. Xu et al (2015) used copulas to develop a regional drought frequency model by considering drought duration, severity and the affected areas.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Copula-based drought risk assessment combined with an integrated index in the Wei River Basin, China

Chang

Wang

et al. 2016

Journal of Hydrology

187

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“…Drought events became fewer and longer when drought propagated from 3-month SPI to PHDI. These drought properties have been also shown in various studies (Tallaksen et al 2009;Van Loon and Van Lanen 2012;Wong et al 2013;Barker et al 2016). …”

Section: Comparison Between Meteorological and Hydrological Droughtmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…Since atmosphere, surface and subsurface water storages are closely interconnected within the hydrologic cycle, meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts are related with each other. Some studies have tried to find correlations and/or causal relationships between different drought types (Zhai et al 2010;Joetzjer et al 2013;Wong et al 2013;Haslinger et al 2014;Thomas et al 2015;Zhu et al 2016), and have concluded that there is a significant link between different drought types. For example, Haslinger et al (2014) estimated the correlation of four meteorological drought indices [SPI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Z-index and self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI)] with streamflow.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of drought propagation in South Korea using drought index and conditional probability

Shin¹,

Chen²,

Lee³

et al. 2018

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Meteorological drought commonly originates from precipitation deficit and is then propagated to agricultural and hydrological droughts. Since drought impacts are more directly related to agricultural and hydrological systems of human society, it is important to understand the drought propagation process for reducing drought impacts. This study investigated the propagation of meteorological droughts through the hydrological system in South Korea. We performed comparative analyses between a meteorological drought indicator [Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at various timescales] and a hydrological drought indicator [Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI)], and pooled the mutually dependent drought events from the indicators. The results indicated that most hydrological droughts occurred following meteorological droughts, and drought events became fewer and longer when moving from 3-and 6-month SPI to PHDI. In addition, when we investigated the meteorological conditions, about 70 -80% of 3-and 6-month SPI corresponding to the onset of hydrological drought (PHDI ≤ -2) were less than -1.0. We also calculated the propagation probability using the conditional probability theory with 33% (3-month SPI) and 48% (6-month SPI) of meteorological droughts propagated to hydrological drought. We concluded that even though the frequency of hydrological drought in South Korea was less than that of meteorological drought, the severity of hydrological drought was greater than that of meteorological drought.

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Probabilistic analysis of hydrological drought characteristics using meteorological drought

Cited by 113 publications

References 45 publications

Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

Copula-based drought risk assessment combined with an integrated index in the Wei River Basin, China

Investigation of drought propagation in South Korea using drought index and conditional probability

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