Probabilistic Modeling of Robotic and Automated Systems Operating in Cosmic Space

The Approach to Probabilistic Prediction of Pipelines Safety for Quantitative Rationale Preventive Measures of Control during Design and Operation

“…In conditions of such very much general statistics taking into account additional accessible initial data and application of author's models [1][2][3][4][5][6] for the cases of technology 1) of periodical system diagnostics (without monitoring) and technology 2) of periodical system diagnostics with continuous monitoring and reaction in real time it is required: to estimate quantitative levels of risks; to reveal "bottlenecks"; to define rational recommendations to system preventive measures.…”

“…The probabilistic model "Protection against dangerous influences" [1][2][3][4][5][6] is chosen. It allows estimate technology 1) periodical system diagnostics (without monitoring) and more general technology 2 periodical system diagnostics with continuous monitoring and reaction in real time.…”

“…The next metrics are used for probabilistic prediction of pipelines safety [1][2][3][4][5][6]: the probability of pipelines safety during given prognostic period (if all time during this given period pipelines will be in elementary event "acceptable integrity is provided") and the probability to lose "acceptable safety" (if at least once during this given period pipelines will be in elementary event "acceptable integrity is lost") -as addition to 1 the probability of pipelines safety.…”

“…The input data for probabilistic estimating are [1][2][3][4][5][6]: the given prognostic period "in future"; the frequency of dangerous influences on pipelines (defining the beginning of influencing); the mean activation time (when "acceptable integrity" of pipelines may be lost after beginning of influencing); the mean recovery time; the time between the end of diagnostic and the beginning of the next diagnostic; the diagnostic time; only for technology 2 -the mean time between operator's error during continuous monitoring of pipelines integrity.…”

Probabilistic Methods for Cognitive Solving of Some Problems in Artificial Intelligence Systems

“…The spectrum of the explored systems by these methods includes systems (not only AIS) operated by government agencies, manufacturing structures (including power generation, coal enterprises, oil and gas systems), food storage, space industry, emergency services, municipal economy, etc. [15][16][17][18][19][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. The supporting software tools are original Russian creations registered by Rospatent [38][39][40][41][42][43][44].…”