Probability in reliability assessments of electric power complexes

Abstract

Electric power complexes today rightfully belong to the category of complex systems that become integral structural elements of the environment. Any electric power complex created by engineers has to satisfy the corresponding needs of a person, because this is what it is created for. From this point of view, the electric power complex should be considered endowed with appropriate consumer properties, which must show stability during the period of its operation, determined by the reliability indicators, which for the electric power complex must be supplemented by the corresponding safety indicators. It is these indicators that make it possible to conclude about the possibility of manifestation of the electric power complex during the operation of its consumer properties in full and without a threat to people and to the environment, that is, they make it possible to make a decision about the possibility and feasibility of operating this electric power complex. The analysis of the essence of the concept of probability as a tool to overcome the incompleteness and inaccuracy of information about the events under study, along with various concepts (interpretations) of probability from the point of view of their theoretical status and practical application in the problems of calculating the reliability and safety indicators of electric power complexes. Analyzed the classical, statistical and axiomatic concepts of probability, revealed the features of each of these concepts, conditions and reservations regarding their application in engineering practice. Reveals the reasons for the discrepancy between the reliability indicators, calculated at the design stage of devices on the basis of reference data on the failure rate of individual components, indicators that are observed during the operation of these devices, as well as the need to be careful with the processing of observation results in cases where such that differ significantly from the majority. It is noted that the limitations associated with statistical probability can be to a greater or lesser extent leveled by using the concept of hyper-random events, but the widespread implementation of this concept is constrained by the lack of an appropriate experimental database. On the basis of the analysis carried out, urgent tasks are formulated related to increasing the efficiency of calculating the reliability and safety indicators of electric power complexes.